Filing Flows › Txnm Energy (TXNM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Txnm Energy (TXNM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($75.78 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $18.37 a share (−68% against today's $58.30). Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $75.78 | today's $58.30 plus 30% |
| × shares | 108.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $8.2B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $6.0B | |
| − Cash | $28.7M | |
| + Other claims | $48.1M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $14.3B | 13.4× EBITDA of $1.1B |
| Fees | $285M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $5.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $8.7B | 60% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.5B | $1.2B | $449M | −$644M | $6.5B |
| Year 2 | $2.7B | $1.2B | $498M | −$701M | $7.2B |
| Year 3 | $2.8B | $1.3B | $552M | −$760M | $8.0B |
| Year 4 | $2.9B | $1.4B | $610M | −$819M | $8.8B |
| Year 5 | $3.0B | $1.4B | $673M | −$880M | $9.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $16.1B | |
| − Debt left | $9.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.5B | |
| Money multiple | 0.75× | on $8.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −5.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $58.30; the IRR reaches 20% at $18.37 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $64.12 | −2.6% |
| 20% | $69.95 | −4.2% |
| 30% | $75.78 | −5.7% |
| 40% | $81.61 | −7.1% |
| 50% | $87.44 | −8.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.1B | 46.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $502M | |
| Capital spending | $1.2B | |
| Debt | $6.0B | |
| Cash | $28.7M | |
| Share price | $58.30 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Txnm Energy would cost about $77.24 a share, $8.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $69.95 | $7.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $77.24 | $8.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $88.49 | $9.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Txnm Energy's latest quarter
Txnm Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $733M (+13% year over year), operating margin 37.0%, net earnings $163M, operating cash flow $230M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Txnm Energy being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Txnm Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($75.78 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $18.37 a share (−68% against today's $58.30).
What would a takeover of Txnm Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Txnm Energy would cost about $77.24 a share, $8.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.