Filing Flows › Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) › Stock forecast & fair value
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) stock forecast and fair value
Texas Roadhouse (TXRH) trades at $184.89. 24 analysts' median price target is $210.00 (+14%), from $133.00 to $251.00. Across 28 valuation methods the middle fair value is $153.38 (-17%); the DCF says $126.84.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th | $91.26 | $200.94 | $454.92 | +9% |
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $79.76 | $126.84 | $180.35 | -31% |
| P/E vs peers | $126.08 | $172.01 | $256.17 | -7% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $136.99 | $161.55 | $199.22 | -13% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $116.33 | $172.01 | $245.03 | -7% |
| P/E vs peers, growth-adjusted | $131.71 | $199.15 | $301.11 | +8% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $103.89 | $151.16 | $195.32 | -18% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $140.48 | $184.52 | $195.21 | -0.2% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, matched | $102.68 | $119.75 | $184.07 | -35% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, growth-adjusted | $120.40 | $163.25 | $221.47 | -12% |
Texas Roadhouse's latest quarter
Texas Roadhouse, Q3 2026: revenue $1.6B (+10% year over year), operating margin 6.5%, net earnings $89.4M, operating cash flow $147M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for TXRH stock?
The median of 24 analysts' 12-month targets is $210.00, +14% from $184.89; the range is $133.00 to $251.00. The average rating is buy.
What is Texas Roadhouse's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $44.71 and $219.52, with a middle value of $153.38 against a price of $184.89. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Texas Roadhouse usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 40% of the quarters on record.
Is TXRH stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.