Filing Flows › Ulta Beauty (ULTA) › Stock forecast & fair value
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) stock forecast and fair value
Ulta Beauty (ULTA) trades at $644.76. 25 analysts' median price target is $635.00 (-2%), from $500.00 to $731.00. Across 25 valuation methods the middle fair value is $447.85 (-31%); the DCF says $570.41.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th | $438.68 | $707.76 | $1,367.21 | +10% |
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $417.91 | $570.41 | $759.44 | -12% |
| P/E vs peers | $307.08 | $522.64 | $733.04 | -19% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $411.12 | $593.41 | $931.52 | -8% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $285.23 | $422.54 | $722.03 | -34% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $321.59 | $451.08 | $852.27 | -30% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $344.03 | $549.36 | $743.09 | -15% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, matched | $280.01 | $417.60 | $563.09 | -35% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $187.94 | $249.81 | $427.00 | -61% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $152.17 | $291.11 | $468.35 | -55% |
Ulta Beauty's latest quarter
Ulta Beauty, Q2 FY27: revenue $3.0B (+9% year over year), operating margin 12.5%, net earnings $282M, operating cash flow $120M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for ULTA stock?
The median of 25 analysts' 12-month targets is $635.00, -2% from $644.76; the range is $500.00 to $731.00. The average rating is buy.
What is Ulta Beauty's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $182.96 and $707.76, with a middle value of $447.85 against a price of $644.76. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Ulta Beauty usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 75% of the quarters on record.
Is ULTA stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.