Filing Flows › Ulta Beauty (ULTA) › Takeover & LBO
Is Ulta Beauty (ULTA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($844.74 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $511.28 a share (−21% against today's $649.80). Historically 1.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.29× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $844.74 | today's $649.80 plus 30% |
| × shares | 43.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $36.4B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $340M | |
| − Cash | $213M | |
| = Enterprise value | $36.5B | 18.9× EBITDA of $1.9B |
| Fees | $730M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $10.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $26.6B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $14.0B | $2.1B | $814M | $495M | $10.1B |
| Year 2 | $14.9B | $2.2B | $776M | $615M | $9.5B |
| Year 3 | $15.8B | $2.4B | $729M | $734M | $8.8B |
| Year 4 | $16.4B | $2.5B | $673M | $850M | $7.9B |
| Year 5 | $16.9B | $2.5B | $608M | $960M | $7.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $36.7B | |
| − Debt left | $7.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $29.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $26.6B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $649.80; the IRR reaches 20% at $511.28 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $714.78 | 7.3% |
| 20% | $779.76 | 4.6% |
| 30% | $844.74 | 2.3% |
| 40% | $909.72 | 0.2% |
| 50% | $974.70 | −1.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $13.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $1.9B | 14.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $320M | |
| Capital spending | $418M | |
| Debt | $340M | |
| Cash | $213M | |
| Share price | $649.80 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ulta Beauty would cost about $860.98 a share, $37.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $779.76 | $33.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $860.98 | $37.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $986.40 | $42.5B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.29× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Ulta Beauty's latest quarter
Ulta Beauty, Q2 FY27: revenue $3.0B (+9% year over year), operating margin 12.5%, net earnings $282M, operating cash flow $120M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Ulta Beauty being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Ulta Beauty?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($844.74 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $511.28 a share (−21% against today's $649.80).
What would a takeover of Ulta Beauty cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Ulta Beauty would cost about $860.98 a share, $37.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.