Filing Flows › Companies › Uniti Group › Analysis traps
Uniti Group (UNIT): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Jul 30, 2026; rules v1.1
Uniti Group (UNIT): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 3 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is -25.93 a share (price 5.22); 139% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -46.75 to -5.11; across every method the research ran the range is -148 to 2,750. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($12M → −$438M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $367M |
| Operating cash flow | $350M |
| Capex, year before | $355M |
| Capex | $788M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $12M |
| Free cash flow | −$438M |
| Change in FCF | −$449M |
| Change in capex | $433M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $97M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.1% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $24M |
| Revenue | $2.2B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.1% |
| Buybacks | 0 |
| Buybacks / SBC | 0.0 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 143.1M shares |
| Diluted shares | 266.5M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +86.2% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
no quarter a year earlier to compare the last two quarters with
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Not triggered confidence low
Adjusted and GAAP EPS were within 10% of each other in the last 3 quarters.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / 0.1119 / 4.92 / -42.968; 2026-03-31 / -0.34 / -0.34 / 0.0; 2026-06-30 / -0.68 / -0.68 / 0.0 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 0 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +0.0% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted 0.11 vs GAAP 4.92) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted -0.34 vs GAAP -0.34) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted -0.68 vs GAAP -0.68)
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$10M comes due within a year, 60.9× covered by cash and investments of $609M.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $609M |
| Debt | $10.6B |
| Net debt | $10.0B |
| Due within a year | $10M |
| Read from | the current portion of debt on the balance sheet |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$835M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $609M |
| Coverage of what is due | 60.9 |
| Due in the second year | — |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-06-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: 2026-06-30 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not applicable
a loss in one of the quarters: EPS growth has no meaning
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
3 fiscal years of net income on file; a cycle needs five
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is -25.93 a share (price 5.22); 139% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from -46.75 to -5.11; across every method the research ran the range is -148 to 2,750. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | -25.93 |
| price | 5.22 |
| terminal value share | +139.2% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / -46.75 / -5.11; WACC / ±1 pt / -30.95 / -16.28; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / -28.56 / -22.82; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / -28.32 / -23.54 |
| range all methods | -147.57; 2750.37 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Uniti Group: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.