Filing Flows › Upbound Group (UPBD) › Takeover & LBO
Is Upbound Group (UPBD) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($26.91 a share) would return about 15% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $23.09 a share (12% against today's $20.70). Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $26.91 | today's $20.70 plus 30% |
| × shares | 58.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $988M | |
| − Cash | $125M | |
| = Enterprise value | $2.4B | 6.1× EBITDA of $401M |
| Fees | $48.9M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 4.0× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $905M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.9B | $414M | $122M | $167M | $1.4B |
| Year 2 | $5.0B | $427M | $109M | $184M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $5.2B | $440M | $94.7M | $203M | $1.0B |
| Year 4 | $5.3B | $454M | $79.2M | $222M | $813M |
| Year 5 | $5.5B | $467M | $62.2M | $243M | $570M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $2.4B | |
| − Debt left | $570M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.9B | |
| Money multiple | 2.05× | on $905M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 15.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $20.70; the IRR reaches 20% at $23.09 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $22.77 | 20.4% |
| 20% | $24.84 | 17.9% |
| 30% | $26.91 | 15.4% |
| 40% | $28.98 | 13.0% |
| 50% | $31.05 | 10.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $401M | 8.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $141M | |
| Capital spending | $65.1M | |
| Debt | $988M | |
| Cash | $125M | |
| Share price | $20.70 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 3.2% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 29% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Upbound Group would cost about $28.98 a share, $1.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $23.74 | $1.4B |
| Median | 40% | $28.98 | $1.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $33.16 | $1.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.83× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Upbound Group's latest quarter
Upbound Group, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (-2% year over year), operating margin 6.2%, net earnings $34.3M, operating cash flow $163M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Upbound Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Upbound Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($26.91 a share) would return about 15% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $23.09 a share (12% against today's $20.70).
What would a takeover of Upbound Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Upbound Group would cost about $28.98 a share, $1.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.