Filing Flows › United Parcel Service (UPS) › Stock forecast & fair value
United Parcel Service (UPS) stock forecast and fair value
United Parcel Service (UPS) trades at $108.30. 26 analysts' median price target is $117.50 (+8%), from $76.00 to $135.00. Across 26 valuation methods the middle fair value is $113.16 (+4%); the DCF says $71.17.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th | $33.89 | $119.62 | $261.01 | +10% |
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $33.86 | $71.17 | $117.03 | -34% |
| P/E vs peers | $159.69 | $171.46 | $375.40 | +58% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $152.38 | $180.07 | $245.05 | +66% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $158.99 | $163.59 | $253.33 | +51% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $107.34 | $125.38 | $146.34 | +16% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $95.92 | $125.48 | $144.02 | +16% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, matched | $99.03 | $125.38 | $156.21 | +16% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $70.11 | $75.62 | $144.23 | -30% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $85.71 | $131.49 | $269.88 | +21% |
United Parcel Service's latest quarter
United Parcel Service, Q3 2026: revenue $22.9B (+7% year over year), operating margin 7.6%, net earnings $1.2B, operating cash flow $2.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for UPS stock?
The median of 26 analysts' 12-month targets is $117.50, +8% from $108.30; the range is $76.00 to $135.00. The average rating is buy.
What is United Parcel Service's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $33.54 and $180.07, with a middle value of $113.16 against a price of $108.30. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does United Parcel Service usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 100% of the quarters on record.
Is UPS stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.