Filing Flows › Urban Outfitters (URBN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Urban Outfitters (URBN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($110.50 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.63× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $110.50 | today's $85.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 86.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $716M | |
| = Enterprise value | $8.9B | 10.2× EBITDA of $872M |
| Fees | $177M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $4.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $4.2B | 47% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $7.0B | $942M | $367M | −$19.9M | $4.8B |
| Year 2 | $7.5B | $1.0B | $369M | $5.3M | $4.8B |
| Year 3 | $7.9B | $1.1B | $368M | $30.6M | $4.8B |
| Year 4 | $8.2B | $1.1B | $366M | $55.5M | $4.7B |
| Year 5 | $8.5B | $1.1B | $362M | $79.0M | $4.6B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $8.7B | |
| − Debt left | $4.6B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.95× | on $4.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $85.00.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $93.50 | 8.1% |
| 20% | $102.00 | 3.0% |
| 30% | $110.50 | −1.0% |
| 40% | $119.00 | −4.1% |
| 50% | $127.50 | −6.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $6.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $872M | 13.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $141M | |
| Capital spending | $421M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $716M | |
| Share price | $85.00 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Urban Outfitters would cost about $112.62 a share, $9.8B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $102.00 | $8.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $112.62 | $9.8B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $129.03 | $11.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.63× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Urban Outfitters' latest quarter
Urban Outfitters, Q2 FY27: revenue $1.7B (+10% year over year), operating margin 17.4%, net earnings $241M, operating cash flow $376M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Urban Outfitters being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Urban Outfitters?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($110.50 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Urban Outfitters cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Urban Outfitters would cost about $112.62 a share, $9.8B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.