Filing Flows › Veracyte (VCYT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Veracyte (VCYT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($58.80 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.79× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $58.80 | today's $45.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 82.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $4.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $350M | |
| = Enterprise value | $4.5B | 35.3× EBITDA of $127M |
| Fees | $89.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $696M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $3.9B | 85% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $607M | $137M | $53.3M | $58.3M | $638M |
| Year 2 | $648M | $146M | $48.8M | $70.0M | $568M |
| Year 3 | $683M | $154M | $43.5M | $81.7M | $486M |
| Year 4 | $712M | $161M | $37.2M | $93.1M | $393M |
| Year 5 | $734M | $165M | $30.1M | $104M | $289M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 26.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $4.4B | |
| − Debt left | $289M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.06× | on $3.9B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $45.23.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $49.75 | 5.7% |
| 20% | $54.28 | 3.3% |
| 30% | $58.80 | 1.2% |
| 40% | $63.32 | −0.7% |
| 50% | $67.84 | −2.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $562M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $127M | 22.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $20.8M | |
| Capital spending | $12.4M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $350M | |
| Share price | $45.23 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Veracyte would cost about $61.06 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $55.18 | $4.5B |
| Median | 35% | $61.06 | $5.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $65.58 | $5.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.79× the average). Its figures put it in decile 4 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Veracyte's latest quarter
Veracyte, Q3 2026: revenue $152M (+15% year over year), operating margin 10.9%, net earnings $31.5M, operating cash flow $40.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Veracyte being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Veracyte?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($58.80 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Veracyte cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Veracyte would cost about $61.06 a share, $5.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.