Filing Flows › Vertex (VERX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Vertex (VERX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.73 a share) would return about 28% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.60 a share (60% against today's $12.87). Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.89× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $16.73 | today's $12.87 plus 30% |
| × shares | 26.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $441M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $339M | |
| − Cash | $230M | |
| = Enterprise value | $549M | 5.8× EBITDA of $94.1M |
| Fees | $11.0M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $357M | 3.8× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $203M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $850M | $102M | $27.3M | $68.0M | $289M |
| Year 2 | $908M | $108M | $22.1M | $80.6M | $208M |
| Year 3 | $958M | $114M | $15.9M | $93.5M | $115M |
| Year 4 | $998M | $119M | $8.8M | $106M | $8.4M |
| Year 5 | $1.0B | $123M | $643K | $119M | $0 |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 4.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $584M | |
| − Debt left | $0 | |
| + Cash built up | $111M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $695M | |
| Money multiple | 3.42× | on $203M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 27.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $12.87; the IRR reaches 20% at $20.60 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $14.16 | 33.5% |
| 20% | $15.44 | 30.6% |
| 30% | $16.73 | 27.9% |
| 40% | $18.02 | 25.2% |
| 50% | $19.30 | 22.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $787M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $94.1M | 11.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $107M | |
| Debt | $339M | |
| Cash | $230M | |
| Share price | $12.87 | on Oct 13, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Vertex would cost about $16.73 a share, $441M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $14.41 | $380M |
| Median | 30% | $16.73 | $441M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $16.86 | $444M |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.89× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Vertex's latest quarter
Vertex, Q3 2026: revenue $213M (+11% year over year), operating margin 0.1%, net loss $46.6M, operating cash flow $53.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Vertex being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Vertex?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($16.73 a share) would return about 28% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $20.60 a share (60% against today's $12.87).
What would a takeover of Vertex cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Vertex would cost about $16.73 a share, $441M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.