Filing Flows › Venture Global (VG) › Takeover & LBO
Is Venture Global (VG) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.98 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $81.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $14.98 | today's $11.52 plus 30% |
| × shares | 2,643.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $39.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $41.8B | |
| − Cash | $3.1B | |
| + Other claims | $3.5B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $81.8B | 11.1× EBITDA of $7.3B |
| Fees | $1.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $40.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $43.0B | 52% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $17.1B | $7.4B | $3.1B | −$10.2B | $50.6B |
| Year 2 | $17.4B | $7.5B | $3.9B | −$11.0B | $61.6B |
| Year 3 | $17.7B | $7.7B | $4.7B | −$11.9B | $73.5B |
| Year 4 | $18.2B | $7.9B | $5.6B | −$12.8B | $86.3B |
| Year 5 | $18.7B | $8.1B | $6.6B | −$13.9B | $100.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $80.2B | |
| − Debt left | $100.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | −$20.0B | |
| Money multiple | -0.46× | on $43.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −100.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.52.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.67 | −100.0% |
| 20% | $13.82 | −100.0% |
| 30% | $14.98 | −100.0% |
| 40% | $16.13 | −100.0% |
| 50% | $17.28 | −100.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $17.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.3B | 43.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $969M | |
| Capital spending | $13.8B | |
| Debt | $41.8B | |
| Cash | $3.1B | |
| Share price | $11.52 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 1.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Venture Global would cost about $15.26 a share, $40.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $13.82 | $36.5B |
| Median | 32.5% | $15.26 | $40.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $17.49 | $46.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.5× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Venture Global's latest quarter
Venture Global, Q2 2026: revenue $4.6B (+48% year over year), operating margin 47.8%, net earnings $1.3B, operating cash flow $2.1B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Venture Global being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Venture Global?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.98 a share) would return a loss of all the money the buyer puts in to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $81.8B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Venture Global cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Venture Global would cost about $15.26 a share, $40.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.