Filing Flows › Valhi (VHI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Valhi (VHI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($18.34 a share) would return about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $17.59 a share (25% against today's $14.11). Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.05× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $18.34 | today's $14.11 plus 30% |
| × shares | 28.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $525M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $556M | |
| − Cash | $220M | |
| + Other claims | $357M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.2B | 5.9× EBITDA of $205M |
| Fees | $24.3M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $791M | 3.9× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $450M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.4B | $222M | $60.5M | $61.6M | $730M |
| Year 2 | $2.6B | $237M | $55.8M | $74.9M | $655M |
| Year 3 | $2.7B | $250M | $50.1M | $88.5M | $566M |
| Year 4 | $2.9B | $260M | $43.3M | $102M | $464M |
| Year 5 | $2.9B | $268M | $35.5M | $115M | $349M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.4B | |
| − Debt left | $349M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.1B | |
| Money multiple | 2.40× | on $450M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 19.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $14.11; the IRR reaches 20% at $17.59 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $15.52 | 22.3% |
| 20% | $16.93 | 20.7% |
| 30% | $18.34 | 19.2% |
| 40% | $19.75 | 17.6% |
| 50% | $21.16 | 16.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $205M | 9.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $68.2M | |
| Capital spending | $53.7M | |
| Debt | $556M | |
| Cash | $220M | |
| Share price | $14.11 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 27% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Valhi would cost about $18.70 a share, $535M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $16.93 | $484M |
| Median | 32.5% | $18.70 | $535M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $21.42 | $613M |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.05× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Valhi's latest quarter
Valhi, Q3 2026: revenue $589M (+17% year over year), operating margin 11.4%, net earnings $30.2M, operating cash flow $58.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Valhi being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Valhi?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($18.34 a share) would return about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $17.59 a share (25% against today's $14.11).
What would a takeover of Valhi cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Valhi would cost about $18.70 a share, $535M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.