Filing Flows › Valero Energy (VLO) › Stock forecast & fair value
Valero Energy (VLO) stock forecast and fair value
Valero Energy (VLO) trades at $351.23. 19 analysts' median price target is $440.00 (+25%), from $238.00 to $530.00. Across 27 valuation methods the middle fair value is $459.82 (+31%); the DCF says $1,376.43.
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| Regime-switching Monte Carlo 10th–90th | $20.89 | $1,620.98 | $5,961.23 | +362% |
| DCF — Monte Carlo 10th–90th percentile | $345.67 | $1,376.43 | $3,012.63 | +292% |
| P/E vs peers | $333.30 | $445.91 | $629.26 | +27% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $447.30 | $628.30 | $854.45 | +79% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers | $260.23 | $329.46 | $437.27 | -6% |
| EV/EBITDA vs peers, weighted | $264.26 | $339.46 | $443.54 | -3% |
| EV/Sales vs peers | $242.04 | $361.96 | $565.42 | +3% |
| EV/Sales vs peers, weighted | $302.34 | $461.79 | $1,043.77 | +31% |
| Residual income | $282.43 | $293.80 | $305.85 | -16% |
| Sum of the parts (segments × peer EV/Sales) | $657.67 | $1,242.23 | $1,803.39 | +254% |
Valero Energy's latest quarter
Valero Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $46.1B (+43% year over year), operating margin 19.7%, net earnings $6.8B, operating cash flow $6.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for VLO stock?
The median of 19 analysts' 12-month targets is $440.00, +25% from $351.23; the range is $238.00 to $530.00. The average rating is buy.
What is Valero Energy's fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $110.60 and $1,620.98, with a middle value of $459.82 against a price of $351.23. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Valero Energy usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 100% of the quarters on record.
Is VLO stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.