Filing Flows › Valero Energy (VLO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Valero Energy (VLO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($456.60 a share) would return about 21% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $465.79 a share (33% against today's $351.23). At $131.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Latest signal (2026-10-30): Valero to Acquire Former Houston Refinery from LyondellBasell.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $456.60 | today's $351.23 plus 30% |
| × shares | 285.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $130.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $8.3B | |
| − Cash | $9.8B | |
| + Other claims | $3.1B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $131.7B | 6.4× EBITDA of $20.7B |
| Fees | $2.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $85.6B | 4.1× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $48.7B | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $165.6B | $22.3B | $6.5B | $11.7B | $73.8B |
| Year 2 | $176.8B | $23.8B | $5.6B | $13.8B | $60.1B |
| Year 3 | $186.5B | $25.1B | $4.6B | $15.8B | $44.3B |
| Year 4 | $194.4B | $26.2B | $3.4B | $17.8B | $26.5B |
| Year 5 | $200.3B | $27.0B | $2.0B | $19.7B | $6.8B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 4.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $132.7B | |
| − Debt left | $6.8B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $125.9B | |
| Money multiple | 2.58× | on $48.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 20.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $351.23; the IRR reaches 20% at $465.79 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $386.35 | 28.2% |
| 20% | $421.48 | 24.5% |
| 30% | $456.60 | 20.9% |
| 40% | $491.72 | 17.5% |
| 50% | $526.85 | 14.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $153.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $20.7B | 13.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $3.1B | |
| Debt | $8.3B | |
| Cash | $9.8B | |
| Share price | $351.23 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Valero Energy would cost about $465.38 a share, $132.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $421.48 | $120.1B |
| Median | 32.5% | $465.38 | $132.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $533.17 | $152.0B |
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-10-30 · 8-K deal · Valero to Acquire Former Houston Refinery from LyondellBasell
Valero Energy's latest quarter
Valero Energy, Q3 2026: revenue $46.1B (+43% year over year), operating margin 19.7%, net earnings $6.8B, operating cash flow $6.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Valero Energy being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-10-30: Valero to Acquire Former Houston Refinery from LyondellBasell. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Valero Energy?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($456.60 a share) would return about 21% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $465.79 a share (33% against today's $351.23). At $131.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Valero Energy cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Valero Energy would cost about $465.38 a share, $132.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.