Filing Flows › Valmont Industries (VMI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Valmont Industries (VMI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($548.73 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $329.21 a share (−22% against today's $422.10). Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $548.73 | today's $422.10 plus 30% |
| × shares | 19.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $10.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $796M | |
| − Cash | $122M | |
| = Enterprise value | $11.3B | 16.0× EBITDA of $707M |
| Fees | $226M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.9B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.7B | 66% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $4.5B | $739M | $297M | $217M | $3.7B |
| Year 2 | $4.7B | $770M | $281M | $253M | $3.4B |
| Year 3 | $4.8B | $799M | $261M | $291M | $3.1B |
| Year 4 | $5.0B | $826M | $239M | $330M | $2.8B |
| Year 5 | $5.2B | $851M | $214M | $371M | $2.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 12.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.7B | |
| − Debt left | $2.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.2B | |
| Money multiple | 1.08× | on $7.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 1.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $422.10; the IRR reaches 20% at $329.21 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $464.31 | 6.6% |
| 20% | $506.52 | 3.9% |
| 30% | $548.73 | 1.5% |
| 40% | $590.94 | −0.6% |
| 50% | $633.15 | −2.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $707M | 16.5% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $95.9M | |
| Capital spending | $157M | |
| Debt | $796M | |
| Cash | $122M | |
| Share price | $422.10 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Valmont Industries would cost about $590.94 a share, $11.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $484.15 | $9.4B |
| Median | 40% | $590.94 | $11.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $676.20 | $13.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.2% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.44× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Valmont Industries' latest quarter
Valmont Industries, Q3 2026: revenue $1.1B (+6% year over year), operating margin 15.7%, net earnings $121M, operating cash flow $100M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Valmont Industries being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Valmont Industries?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($548.73 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $329.21 a share (−22% against today's $422.10).
What would a takeover of Valmont Industries cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Valmont Industries would cost about $590.94 a share, $11.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.