Filing Flows › Verra Mobility (VRRM) › Takeover & LBO
Is Verra Mobility (VRRM) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($3.80 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $0.59 a share (−80% against today's $2.92). Historically 5.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.12× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $3.80 | today's $2.92 plus 30% |
| × shares | 152.1 million | |
| = Equity value | $577M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.0B | |
| − Cash | $54.8M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.6B | 6.4× EBITDA of $243M |
| Fees | $31.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.0B | 4.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $576M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $111M | $236M | $77.4M | $29.7M | $983M |
| Year 2 | $109M | $232M | $75.2M | $30.0M | $953M |
| Year 3 | $109M | $232M | $72.9M | $31.6M | $921M |
| Year 4 | $111M | $235M | $70.4M | $34.4M | $887M |
| Year 5 | $114M | $243M | $67.8M | $38.6M | $848M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 5.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.4B | |
| − Debt left | $848M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $575M | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $576M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −0.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $2.92; the IRR reaches 20% at $0.59 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $3.21 | 3.6% |
| 20% | $3.50 | 1.8% |
| 30% | $3.80 | −0.1% |
| 40% | $4.09 | −2.0% |
| 50% | $4.38 | −3.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $114M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $243M | 212.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $115M | |
| Capital spending | $118M | |
| Debt | $1.0B | |
| Cash | $54.8M | |
| Share price | $2.92 | on Oct 12, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Verra Mobility would cost about $4.09 a share, $622M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $3.35 | $509M |
| Median | 40% | $4.09 | $622M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $4.68 | $712M |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.12× the average). Its figures put it in decile 7 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Verra Mobility's latest quarter
Verra Mobility, Q3 2026: revenue $259M (-1% year over year), operating margin 25.3%, net earnings $40.4M, operating cash flow $115M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Verra Mobility being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Verra Mobility?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($3.80 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $0.59 a share (−80% against today's $2.92).
What would a takeover of Verra Mobility cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Verra Mobility would cost about $4.09 a share, $622M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.