Filing Flows › Waters (WAT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Waters (WAT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($596.27 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $248.51 a share (−46% against today's $458.67). Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $596.27 | today's $458.67 plus 30% |
| × shares | 98.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $58.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.4B | |
| − Cash | $539M | |
| = Enterprise value | $59.4B | 133.6× EBITDA of $445M |
| Fees | $1.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.4B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $58.2B | 96% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.0B | $480M | $187M | $61.0M | $2.4B |
| Year 2 | $5.4B | $513M | $182M | $85.0M | $2.3B |
| Year 3 | $5.6B | $541M | $176M | $109M | $2.2B |
| Year 4 | $5.9B | $564M | $168M | $133M | $2.1B |
| Year 5 | $6.1B | $581M | $157M | $157M | $1.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 103.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $60.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $58.1B | |
| Money multiple | 1.00× | on $58.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.0% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $458.67; the IRR reaches 20% at $248.51 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $504.54 | 3.5% |
| 20% | $550.40 | 1.6% |
| 30% | $596.27 | 0.0% |
| 40% | $642.14 | −1.5% |
| 50% | $688.00 | −2.9% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $4.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $445M | 9.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $115M | |
| Capital spending | $151M | |
| Debt | $1.4B | |
| Cash | $539M | |
| Share price | $458.67 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 19% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Waters would cost about $642.14 a share, $63.1B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $526.09 | $51.7B |
| Median | 40% | $642.14 | $63.1B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $734.79 | $72.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.1% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.42× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Waters' latest quarter
Waters, Q3 2026: revenue $1.8B (+121% year over year), operating margin 7.2%, net earnings $81.0M, operating cash flow $98.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Waters being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Waters?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($596.27 a share) would return a loss of about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $248.51 a share (−46% against today's $458.67).
What would a takeover of Waters cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Waters would cost about $642.14 a share, $63.1B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.