Filing Flows › Waste Connections (WCN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Waste Connections (WCN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($245.30 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $118.73 a share (−37% against today's $188.69). At $71.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $245.30 | today's $188.69 plus 30% |
| × shares | 251.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $61.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $9.4B | |
| − Cash | $95.7M | |
| = Enterprise value | $71.1B | 23.2× EBITDA of $3.1B |
| Fees | $1.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $16.8B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $55.7B | 77% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $10.6B | $3.3B | $1.3B | $415M | $16.4B |
| Year 2 | $11.1B | $3.4B | $1.3B | $526M | $15.9B |
| Year 3 | $11.7B | $3.6B | $1.2B | $636M | $15.3B |
| Year 4 | $12.1B | $3.7B | $1.2B | $743M | $14.5B |
| Year 5 | $12.5B | $3.8B | $1.1B | $846M | $13.7B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $71.4B | |
| − Debt left | $13.7B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $57.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $55.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $188.69; the IRR reaches 20% at $118.73 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $207.56 | 4.6% |
| 20% | $226.43 | 2.6% |
| 30% | $245.30 | 0.7% |
| 40% | $264.17 | −1.0% |
| 50% | $283.03 | −2.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $9.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.1B | 30.8% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.3B | |
| Capital spending | $1.3B | |
| Debt | $9.4B | |
| Cash | $95.7M | |
| Share price | $188.69 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 6.3% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Waste Connections would cost about $250.01 a share, $63.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $226.43 | $57.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $250.01 | $63.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $286.43 | $72.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 1.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.38× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Waste Connections' latest quarter
Waste Connections, Q3 2026: revenue $2.6B (+7% year over year), operating margin 20.5%, net earnings $359M, operating cash flow $692M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Waste Connections being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Waste Connections?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($245.30 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $118.73 a share (−37% against today's $188.69). At $71.1B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Waste Connections cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Waste Connections would cost about $250.01 a share, $63.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.