Filing Flows › Winnebago Industries (WGO) › Takeover & LBO
Is Winnebago Industries (WGO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($39.79 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $22.18 a share (−28% against today's $30.61). Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $39.79 | today's $30.61 plus 30% |
| × shares | 28.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $443M | |
| − Cash | $181M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.4B | 11.0× EBITDA of $126M |
| Fees | $27.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $694M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $726M | 51% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.6B | $122M | $53.1M | $43.5M | $651M |
| Year 2 | $2.6B | $121M | $49.8M | $44.8M | $606M |
| Year 3 | $2.6B | $121M | $46.3M | $47.4M | $558M |
| Year 4 | $2.6B | $122M | $42.7M | $47.6M | $511M |
| Year 5 | $2.7B | $126M | $39.1M | $49.0M | $462M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 9.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.1B | |
| − Debt left | $462M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $668M | |
| Money multiple | 0.92× | on $726M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $30.61; the IRR reaches 20% at $22.18 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $33.67 | 4.0% |
| 20% | $36.73 | 1.0% |
| 30% | $39.79 | −1.6% |
| 40% | $42.85 | −3.9% |
| 50% | $45.91 | −5.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.7B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $126M | 4.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $60.0M | |
| Capital spending | $24.1M | |
| Debt | $443M | |
| Cash | $181M | |
| Share price | $30.61 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Winnebago Industries would cost about $40.56 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $36.73 | $1.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $40.56 | $1.2B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $46.47 | $1.3B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.75× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Winnebago Industries' latest quarter
Winnebago Industries, Q4 FY26: revenue $645M (-17% year over year), operating margin 2.7%, net earnings $9.7M, operating cash flow $142M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Winnebago Industries being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Winnebago Industries?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($39.79 a share) would return a loss of about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $22.18 a share (−28% against today's $30.61).
What would a takeover of Winnebago Industries cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Winnebago Industries would cost about $40.56 a share, $1.2B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.