Filing Flows › Willdan Group (WLDN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Willdan Group (WLDN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($97.66 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $58.61 a share (−22% against today's $75.12). Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.68× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-05): Willdan Completes Acquisition of Mantis Innovation.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $97.66 | today's $75.12 plus 30% |
| × shares | 15.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $67.2M | |
| − Cash | $34.9M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.5B | 20.9× EBITDA of $73.5M |
| Fees | $30.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $404M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.2B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $801M | $79.4M | $30.9M | $30.2M | $374M |
| Year 2 | $855M | $84.7M | $28.6M | $37.0M | $337M |
| Year 3 | $902M | $89.4M | $25.8M | $44.0M | $293M |
| Year 4 | $941M | $93.2M | $22.4M | $50.8M | $242M |
| Year 5 | $969M | $96.0M | $18.5M | $57.5M | $185M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.2× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.6B | |
| − Debt left | $185M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.4B | |
| Money multiple | 1.18× | on $1.2B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $75.12; the IRR reaches 20% at $58.61 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $82.63 | 8.1% |
| 20% | $90.14 | 5.5% |
| 30% | $97.66 | 3.3% |
| 40% | $105.17 | 1.3% |
| 50% | $112.68 | −0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $742M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $73.5M | 9.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $21.2M | |
| Capital spending | $8.5M | |
| Debt | $67.2M | |
| Cash | $34.9M | |
| Share price | $75.12 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Willdan Group would cost about $105.17 a share, $1.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $86.16 | $1.3B |
| Median | 40% | $105.17 | $1.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $120.34 | $1.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.68× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-05 · 8-K deal · Willdan Completes Acquisition of Mantis Innovation
Willdan Group's latest quarter
Willdan Group, Q3 2026: revenue $215M (+18% year over year), operating margin 7.6%, net earnings $11.9M, operating cash flow $13.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Willdan Group being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-05: Willdan Completes Acquisition of Mantis Innovation. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Willdan Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($97.66 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $58.61 a share (−22% against today's $75.12).
What would a takeover of Willdan Group cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Willdan Group would cost about $105.17 a share, $1.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.