Filing Flows › Williams Companies (WMB) › Takeover & LBO
Is Williams Companies (WMB) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($84.00 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $34.02 a share (−47% against today's $64.61). At $135.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $84.00 | today's $64.61 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,225.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $102.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $30.8B | |
| − Cash | $203M | |
| + Other claims | $2.2B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $135.7B | 19.4× EBITDA of $7.0B |
| Fees | $2.7B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $38.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $100.0B | 72% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $13.2B | $7.6B | $2.9B | −$2.6B | $41.0B |
| Year 2 | $14.1B | $8.1B | $3.1B | −$2.7B | $43.8B |
| Year 3 | $14.8B | $8.5B | $3.3B | −$2.9B | $46.6B |
| Year 4 | $15.5B | $8.9B | $3.6B | −$3.1B | $49.7B |
| Year 5 | $15.9B | $9.1B | $3.8B | −$3.2B | $52.9B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.0× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $146.2B | |
| − Debt left | $52.9B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $93.3B | |
| Money multiple | 0.93× | on $100.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −1.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $64.61; the IRR reaches 20% at $34.02 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $71.08 | 2.2% |
| 20% | $77.54 | 0.3% |
| 30% | $84.00 | −1.4% |
| 40% | $90.46 | −2.9% |
| 50% | $96.92 | −4.3% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $12.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $7.0B | 57.3% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $2.3B | |
| Capital spending | $6.1B | |
| Debt | $30.8B | |
| Cash | $203M | |
| Share price | $64.61 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Williams Companies would cost about $85.61 a share, $104.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $77.54 | $95.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $85.61 | $104.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $98.09 | $120.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.4× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Williams Companies' latest quarter
Williams Companies, Q3 2026: revenue $3.2B (+10% year over year), operating margin 35.2%, net earnings $700M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Williams Companies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Williams Companies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($84.00 a share) would return a loss of about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $34.02 a share (−47% against today's $64.61). At $135.7B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Williams Companies cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Williams Companies would cost about $85.61 a share, $104.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.