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Warner Music Group (WMG): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 FY26, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Warner Music Group (WMG): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026. 2 to review; 4 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $665M is at a high against a median of $365M over eight years; at 24.8× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (45.2×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 22.49 a share (price 31.54); 67% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 16.36 to 28.61; across every method the research ran the range is -51 to 414. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($638M → $539M): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY24 |
| Fiscal year | FY25 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $754M |
| Operating cash flow | $678M |
| Capex, year before | $116M |
| Capex | $139M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $638M |
| Free cash flow | $539M |
| Change in FCF | −$99M |
| Change in capex | $23M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $33M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY24 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 23% against revenue 10% in Q3 FY26; DSO 76 against a median of 68: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 FY26 |
| Revenue, year over year | +10.4% |
| Receivables, year over year | +23.1% |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +16.7% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +23.6% |
| Days sales outstanding | 76.0 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 68.0 |
| Receivables | $1.6B |
| Revenue | $1.9B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 FY26 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 FY25 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $665M is at a high against a median of $365M over eight years; at 24.8× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (45.2×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $16.5B |
| net income ttm | $665M |
| pe ttm | 24.80 |
| net income median fy | $365M |
| pe mid cycle | 45.20 |
| net income peak fy | $551M |
| years | FY18 / 307.0; FY19 / 256.0; FY20 / -475.0; FY21 / 304.0; FY22 / 551.0; FY23 / 430.0; FY24 / 435.0; FY25 / 365.0 |
| down years in window | 4 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 FY26 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 22.49 a share (price 31.54); 67% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 16.36 to 28.61; across every method the research ran the range is -51 to 414. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 22.49 |
| price | 31.54 |
| terminal value share | +66.8% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 16.36 / 28.61; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 17.19 / 28.76; WACC / ±1 pt / 18.58 / 27.88; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 20.65 / 24.32 |
| range all methods | -51.08; 413.59 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Warner Music Group: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.