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Block (XYZ): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 3, 2026; rules v1.1
Block (XYZ): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 20.25 a share (price 84.04); 63% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 9.81 to 30.68; across every method the research ran the range is -17 to 320. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $871M to $2.4B; working capital and lower capex explain 0% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $1.7B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.6B |
| Capex, year before | $154M |
| Capex | $155M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $1.6B |
| Free cash flow | $2.4B |
| Change in FCF | $871M |
| Change in capex | $1M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$849M |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +0.0% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 1721595000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 5.0% of revenue, but buybacks of $2.3B covered it (1.9×) and the diluted share count fell 2.1%: the dilution has been paid for in cash.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $1.2B |
| Revenue | $24.2B |
| SBC / revenue | +5.0% |
| Buybacks | $2.3B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 1.9 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 636.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 622.8M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -2.1% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 8% against revenue 10% in Q3 2026; DSO 3 against a median of 3: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +9.9% |
| Receivables, year over year | +8.2% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +9.3% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +22.3% |
| Days sales outstanding | 2.6 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 2.5 |
| Receivables | $191M |
| Revenue | $6.7B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 24% and net income rose 23% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 1.1%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.74 |
| EPS | $0.92 |
| Net income, year before | $462M |
| Net income | $566M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 621.7M shares |
| Diluted shares | 614.8M shares |
| EPS growth | +24.0% |
| Net income growth | +22.5% |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.1% |
| eps from profit | $0.17 |
| eps from share count | $0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $461M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $213M, best $2.9B): the P/E of 112.0× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $51.7B |
| net income ttm | $461M |
| pe ttm | 112.00 |
| net income median fy | $213M |
| pe mid cycle | 242.40 |
| net income peak fy | $2.9B |
| years | FY2018 / -38.0; FY2019 / 375.0; FY2020 / 213.0; FY2021 / 166.0; FY2022 / -541.0; FY2023 / 10.0; FY2024 / 2897.0; FY2025 / 1306.0 |
| down years in window | 4 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 20.25 a share (price 84.04); 63% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 9.81 to 30.68; across every method the research ran the range is -17 to 320. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 20.25 |
| price | 84.04 |
| terminal value share | +62.9% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 9.81 / 30.68; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 17.93 / 22.99; WACC / ±1 pt / 18.42 / 22.63; Capex (share of revenue) / ±1 pt / 18.38 / 22.11 |
| range all methods | -16.61; 319.7 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Block: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.