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Clear Secure (YOU): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
Clear Secure (YOU): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 2 to review; 4 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $232M is at a high against a median of $28M over eight years; at 16.2× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (133.5×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 103.72 a share (price 42.77); 81% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 86.58 to 130.82; across every method the research ran the range is 23 to 279. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow rose $59M to $343M; working capital and lower capex explain 0% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $296M |
| Operating cash flow | $372M |
| Capex, year before | $12M |
| Capex | $29M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $284M |
| Free cash flow | $343M |
| Change in FCF | $59M |
| Change in capex | $17M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$69M |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +0.0% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 146236000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years of stock compensation and share counts on file
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew -43% against revenue 28% in Q3 2026; DSO 0 against a median of 0: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +27.8% |
| Receivables, year over year | -43.5% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +26.6% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +19.8% |
| Days sales outstanding | 0.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 0.4 |
| Receivables | $922K |
| Revenue | $293M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $232M is at a high against a median of $28M over eight years; at 16.2× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (133.5×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $3.8B |
| net income ttm | $232M |
| pe ttm | 16.20 |
| net income median fy | $28M |
| pe mid cycle | 133.50 |
| net income peak fy | $170M |
| years | FY2021 / -36.0; FY2022 / -66.0; FY2023 / 28.0; FY2024 / 170.0; FY2025 / 109.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 103.72 a share (price 42.77); 81% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving wacc by ±1 pt alone takes it from 86.58 to 130.82; across every method the research ran the range is 23 to 279. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 103.72 |
| price | 42.77 |
| terminal value share | +81.2% |
| swing by input | WACC / ±1 pt / 86.58 / 130.82; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 86.72 / 123.82; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 93.1 / 114.34; Terminal growth / ±0.5 pt / 98.46 / 110.28 |
| range all methods | 23.24; 279.27 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Clear Secure: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.