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Aaon (AAON): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 2026, to Jun 30, 2026, filed Aug 10, 2026; rules v1.1
Aaon (AAON): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Jun 30, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 56.60 a share (price 57.19); 62% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 42.48 to 70.71; across every method the research ran the range is 4 to 227. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
fewer than two fiscal years with operating cash flow and capital expenditure on file
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.2% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $18M |
| Revenue | $1.4B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.2% |
| Buybacks | $30M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 1.7 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 83.6M shares |
| Diluted shares | 83.1M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.6% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 112% against revenue 101% in Q2 2026; DSO 47 against a median of 49: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +101.2% |
| Receivables, year over year | +111.5% |
| Quarter before | Q1 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +54.3% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +75.9% |
| Days sales outstanding | 47.2 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 49.0 |
| Receivables | $361M |
| Revenue | $627M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q2 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Not triggered confidence low
Adjusted and GAAP EPS were within 10% of each other in the last 3 quarters.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-09-30 / 0.37 / 0.37 / 0.0; 2026-03-31 / 0.48 / 0.48 / 0.0; 2026-06-30 / 0.69 / 0.68 / 0.014 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 0 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +1.4% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-09-30 (adjusted 0.37 vs GAAP 0.37) · 2026-03-31 (adjusted 0.48 vs GAAP 0.48) · 2026-06-30 (adjusted 0.69 vs GAAP 0.68)
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 262% and net income rose 266% in Q2 2026; the share count rose 0.9%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q2 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.19 |
| EPS | $0.68 |
| Net income, year before | $15M |
| Net income | $57M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 83.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 83.7M shares |
| EPS growth | +262.0% |
| Net income growth | +265.9% |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.9% |
| eps from profit | $0.50 |
| eps from share count | -$0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q2 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $159M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $100M, best $178M): the P/E of 30.1× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $4.8B |
| net income ttm | $159M |
| pe ttm | 30.10 |
| net income median fy | $100M |
| pe mid cycle | 47.70 |
| net income peak fy | $178M |
| years | FY2018 / 43.0; FY2019 / 54.0; FY2020 / 79.0; FY2021 / 59.0; FY2022 / 100.0; FY2023 / 178.0; FY2024 / 169.0; FY2025 / 108.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q2 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 56.60 a share (price 57.19); 62% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 42.48 to 70.71; across every method the research ran the range is 4 to 227. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 56.60 |
| price | 57.19 |
| terminal value share | +62.3% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 42.48 / 70.71; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 48.06 / 66.47; WACC / ±1 pt / 51.13 / 63.39; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / 53.19 / 60.0 |
| range all methods | 3.94; 227.05 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Aaon: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.