Filing Flows › Aaon (AAON) › Takeover & LBO
Is Aaon (AAON) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($87.62 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $51.47 a share (−24% against today's $67.40).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $87.62 | today's $67.40 plus 30% |
| × shares | 83.7 million | |
| = Equity value | $7.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $13K | |
| = Enterprise value | $7.3B | 24.6× EBITDA of $299M |
| Fees | $147M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.8B | 78% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.1B | $322M | $126M | $164M | $1.5B |
| Year 2 | $2.2B | $344M | $113M | $195M | $1.3B |
| Year 3 | $2.4B | $363M | $98.2M | $225M | $1.1B |
| Year 4 | $2.5B | $379M | $81.0M | $255M | $803M |
| Year 5 | $2.5B | $390M | $61.4M | $284M | $519M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 18.9× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $7.4B | |
| − Debt left | $519M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $6.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.17× | on $5.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $67.40; the IRR reaches 20% at $51.47 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $74.14 | 7.9% |
| 20% | $80.88 | 5.4% |
| 30% | $87.62 | 3.2% |
| 40% | $94.36 | 1.3% |
| 50% | $101.10 | −0.4% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $299M | 15.4% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $85.0M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $13K | |
| Share price | $67.40 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 17% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Aaon would cost about $94.36 a share, $7.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $77.31 | $6.5B |
| Median | 40% | $94.36 | $7.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $107.97 | $9.0B |
Aaon's latest quarter
Aaon, Q2 2026: revenue $627M (+101% year over year), operating margin 11.0%, net earnings $56.7M, operating cash flow $21.0M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Aaon being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Aaon?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($87.62 a share) would return about 3% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $51.47 a share (−24% against today's $67.40).
What would a takeover of Aaon cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Aaon would cost about $94.36 a share, $7.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.