Filing Flows › Amazon.com (AMZN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Amazon.com (AMZN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($336.67 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $157.98 a share (−39% against today's $258.98). At $3.75T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $336.67 | today's $258.98 plus 30% |
| × shares | 10,929.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.68T | |
| + Debt refinanced | $181.3B | |
| − Cash | $114.2B | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.75T | 20.4× EBITDA of $183.7B |
| Fees | $74.9B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.01T | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.81T | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $861.3B | $198.4B | $77.3B | −$125.6B | $1.14T |
| Year 2 | $919.4B | $211.8B | $86.9B | −$136.5B | $1.27T |
| Year 3 | $970.0B | $223.5B | $97.3B | −$147.3B | $1.42T |
| Year 4 | $1.01T | $233.0B | $108.6B | −$157.9B | $1.58T |
| Year 5 | $1.04T | $239.9B | $120.7B | −$168.3B | $1.75T |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 15.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.78T | |
| − Debt left | $1.75T | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.04T | |
| Money multiple | 0.73× | on $2.81T put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −6.2% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $258.98; the IRR reaches 20% at $157.98 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $284.87 | −1.8% |
| 20% | $310.77 | −4.2% |
| 30% | $336.67 | −6.2% |
| 40% | $362.56 | −8.0% |
| 50% | $388.46 | −9.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $797.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $183.7B | 23.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $79.4B | |
| Capital spending | $215.2B | |
| Debt | $181.3B | |
| Cash | $114.2B | |
| Share price | $258.98 | on Nov 5, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amazon.com would cost about $343.14 a share, $3.75T for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $310.77 | $3.40T |
| Median | 32.5% | $343.14 | $3.75T |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $393.12 | $4.30T |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.6% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.52× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Amazon.com's latest quarter
Amazon.com, Q3 2026: revenue $201.9B (+12% year over year), operating margin 13.9%, net earnings $20.7B, operating cash flow $42.4B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Amazon.com being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Amazon.com?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($336.67 a share) would return a loss of about 6% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $157.98 a share (−39% against today's $258.98). At $3.75T it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Amazon.com cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Amazon.com would cost about $343.14 a share, $3.75T for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.