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Is Arista Networks (ANET) a takeover target?

A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($221.10 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $268.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).

Share price$170.08
Offer at +30%$221.10
Buyer's IRR1%
EV / EBITDA38.3×
Buyout debt5.5× EBITDA

The buyout, step by step

EntryAmountHow
Offer price a share$221.10today's $170.08 plus 30%
× shares1,278.2 million
= Equity value$282.6B
+ Debt refinanced$0
− Cash$14.4B
= Enterprise value$268.3B50.6× EBITDA of $5.3B
Fees$5.4B2% of the price
New debt$29.2B5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA
Buyer's own money$244.4B89% of the cost

5 years under the buyer

Arista Networks: buyout debt left, year by yearArista Networks: buyout debt left, year by year$29.2BEntry$26.5BYear 1$23.4BYear 2$19.8BYear 3$15.7BYear 4$11.3BYear 5
Free cash flow after interest and tax repays the debt; a shortfall is borrowed.
YearRevenueEBITDAInterestFree cash flowDebt left
Year 1$12.8B$5.7B$2.2B$2.6B$26.5B
Year 2$13.7B$6.1B$2.0B$3.1B$23.4B
Year 3$14.5B$6.5B$1.8B$3.6B$19.8B
Year 4$15.1B$6.7B$1.5B$4.1B$15.7B
Year 5$15.5B$6.9B$1.2B$4.5B$11.3B

The exit and the buyer's return

ExitAmount
Exit multiple38.3× EBITDAtoday's trading multiple, before any premium
Enterprise value at exit$265.2B
− Debt left$11.3B
= Buyer's equity$253.9B
Money multiple1.04×on $244.4B put in
Buyer's yearly return (IRR)0.8%

Price against return

What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $170.08.

PremiumPrice a shareBuyer's IRR
10%$187.094.9%
20%$204.102.7%
30%$221.100.8%
40%$238.11−1.0%
50%$255.12−2.5%

The figures used

FigureAmount
Revenue, last 12 months$11.9B
EBITDA, last 12 months$5.3B44.6% of revenue
Depreciation and amortization$93.1M
Capital spending$120M
Debt$0
Cash$14.4B
Share price$170.08on Nov 6, 2026

Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.

What a takeover could cost

Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arista Networks would cost about $221.10 a share, $282.6B for all its shares.

Premium%Price a shareAll shares
Low end (a quarter of deals paid less)12%$190.49$243.5B
Median30%$221.10$282.6B
High end (a quarter paid more)31%$222.80$284.8B

The odds, from history

Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.

Arista Networks' latest quarter

Arista Networks, Q3 2026: revenue $3.7B (+58% year over year), operating margin 44.9%, net earnings $1.6B, operating cash flow $1.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.

Questions

Is Arista Networks being acquired?

No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.

Could private equity buy Arista Networks?

A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($221.10 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $268.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.

What would a takeover of Arista Networks cost?

Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arista Networks would cost about $221.10 a share, $282.6B for all its shares.

Open the interactive view →

Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.