Filing Flows › Arista Networks (ANET) › Takeover & LBO
Is Arista Networks (ANET) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($221.10 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $268.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $221.10 | today's $170.08 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,278.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $282.6B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $14.4B | |
| = Enterprise value | $268.3B | 50.6× EBITDA of $5.3B |
| Fees | $5.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $29.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $244.4B | 89% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $12.8B | $5.7B | $2.2B | $2.6B | $26.5B |
| Year 2 | $13.7B | $6.1B | $2.0B | $3.1B | $23.4B |
| Year 3 | $14.5B | $6.5B | $1.8B | $3.6B | $19.8B |
| Year 4 | $15.1B | $6.7B | $1.5B | $4.1B | $15.7B |
| Year 5 | $15.5B | $6.9B | $1.2B | $4.5B | $11.3B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 38.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $265.2B | |
| − Debt left | $11.3B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $253.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.04× | on $244.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $170.08.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $187.09 | 4.9% |
| 20% | $204.10 | 2.7% |
| 30% | $221.10 | 0.8% |
| 40% | $238.11 | −1.0% |
| 50% | $255.12 | −2.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $11.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $5.3B | 44.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $93.1M | |
| Capital spending | $120M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $14.4B | |
| Share price | $170.08 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 18% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arista Networks would cost about $221.10 a share, $282.6B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $190.49 | $243.5B |
| Median | 30% | $221.10 | $282.6B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $222.80 | $284.8B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.46× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Arista Networks' latest quarter
Arista Networks, Q3 2026: revenue $3.7B (+58% year over year), operating margin 44.9%, net earnings $1.6B, operating cash flow $1.2B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Arista Networks being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Arista Networks?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($221.10 a share) would return about 1% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. At $268.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Arista Networks cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Arista Networks would cost about $221.10 a share, $282.6B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.