Filing Flows › AutoZone (AZO) › Takeover & LBO
Is AutoZone (AZO) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($4,301.70 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $2,430.53 a share (−27% against today's $3,309.00). At $81.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $4,301.70 | today's $3,309.00 plus 30% |
| × shares | 16.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $72.5B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $9.1B | |
| − Cash | $326M | |
| = Enterprise value | $81.3B | 18.4× EBITDA of $4.4B |
| Fees | $1.6B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $24.2B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $58.7B | 71% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $22.0B | $4.8B | $1.9B | $743M | $23.5B |
| Year 2 | $23.4B | $5.1B | $1.8B | $962M | $22.5B |
| Year 3 | $24.7B | $5.4B | $1.7B | $1.2B | $21.4B |
| Year 4 | $25.8B | $5.6B | $1.6B | $1.4B | $20.0B |
| Year 5 | $26.6B | $5.8B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $18.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $84.3B | |
| − Debt left | $18.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $65.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.12× | on $58.7B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $3,309.00; the IRR reaches 20% at $2,430.53 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $3,639.90 | 6.9% |
| 20% | $3,970.80 | 4.5% |
| 30% | $4,301.70 | 2.4% |
| 40% | $4,632.60 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $4,963.50 | −1.2% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $20.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $4.4B | 21.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $684M | |
| Capital spending | $1.4B | |
| Debt | $9.1B | |
| Cash | $326M | |
| Share price | $3,309.00 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AutoZone would cost about $4,384.43 a share, $73.9B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $3,970.80 | $67.0B |
| Median | 32.5% | $4,384.43 | $73.9B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $5,023.06 | $84.7B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
AutoZone's latest quarter
AutoZone, Q4 FY26: revenue $6.6B (+6% year over year), operating margin 20.0%, net earnings $932M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is AutoZone being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy AutoZone?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($4,301.70 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $2,430.53 a share (−27% against today's $3,309.00). At $81.3B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of AutoZone cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, AutoZone would cost about $4,384.43 a share, $73.9B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.