Filing Flows › Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) › Stock forecast & fair value
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) stock forecast and fair value
Commerce Bancshares (CBSH) trades at $55.16. 9 analysts' median price target is $62.00 (+12%), from $60.00 to $77.00. Across 14 valuation methods the middle fair value is $49.71 (-10%).
Fair value by method
| Method | Low | Point | High | vs price |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| P/E vs peers | $44.17 | $49.71 | $57.64 | -10% |
| P/E vs peers, weighted | $46.96 | $54.89 | $68.59 | -0.5% |
| P/E vs peers, matched | $44.85 | $50.25 | $58.11 | -9% |
| Residual income | $34.71 | $36.02 | $37.40 | -35% |
| P/TBV vs ROTCE (bank peers) | $38.58 | $49.47 | $60.35 | -10% |
| Analysts' price targets | $60.00 | $64.28 | $77.00 | +17% |
| Shareholder yield (dividends + buybacks) | $35.97 | $41.77 | $49.80 | -24% |
| Justified P/TBV (Gordon growth) | $55.16 | $66.90 | $84.96 | +21% |
| Dividend discount (Gordon) | $19.36 | $23.47 | $29.81 | -57% |
| Stage-weighted value (financial (bank / insurer)) | $38.42 | $45.25 | $53.86 | -18% |
Commerce Bancshares' latest quarter
Commerce Bancshares, Q3 2026: revenue $494M (+12% year over year), operating margin 41.0%, net earnings $155M, operating cash flow $221M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
What is the price target for CBSH stock?
The median of 9 analysts' 12-month targets is $62.00, +12% from $55.16; the range is $60.00 to $77.00. The average rating is hold.
What is Commerce Bancshares' fair value?
The fair-value methods on Filing Flows (DCF, Monte Carlo, peer multiples and others) put it between $23.47 and $72.91, with a middle value of $49.71 against a price of $55.16. Each method's assumptions are on the page.
Does Commerce Bancshares usually beat earnings estimates?
It beat the consensus EPS estimate in 100% of the quarters on record.
Is CBSH stock a buy?
Filing Flows does not give advice. It shows what analysts expect, what each valuation method implies and the figures behind them, read from SEC filings, so you can judge for yourself.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.