Filing Flows › Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) › Takeover & LBO
Is Collegium Pharmaceutical (COLL) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.72 a share) would return about 22% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $28.72 | today's $22.09 plus 30% |
| × shares | 32.5 million | |
| = Equity value | $932M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $129M | |
| = Enterprise value | $803M | 5.0× EBITDA of $162M |
| Fees | $16.1M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $522M | 3.2× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $297M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $873M | $175M | $39.9M | $87.4M | $434M |
| Year 2 | $932M | $186M | $33.2M | $101M | $333M |
| Year 3 | $983M | $197M | $25.5M | $114M | $219M |
| Year 4 | $1.0B | $205M | $16.8M | $127M | $92.1M |
| Year 5 | $1.1B | $211M | $7.0M | $139M | $0 |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 3.6× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $767M | |
| − Debt left | $0 | |
| + Cash built up | $47.2M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $815M | |
| Money multiple | 2.74× | on $297M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 22.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $22.09.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $24.30 | 30.8% |
| 20% | $26.51 | 26.5% |
| 30% | $28.72 | 22.4% |
| 40% | $30.93 | 18.4% |
| 50% | $33.13 | 14.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $808M | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $162M | 20.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $4.2M | |
| Capital spending | $1.6M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $129M | |
| Share price | $22.09 | on Oct 9, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Collegium Pharmaceutical would cost about $29.82 a share, $968M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $26.95 | $875M |
| Median | 35% | $29.82 | $968M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $32.03 | $1.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.97× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Collegium Pharmaceutical's latest quarter
Collegium Pharmaceutical, Q3 2026: revenue $216M (+3% year over year), operating margin 13.3%, net earnings $21.8M, operating cash flow $86.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Collegium Pharmaceutical being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Collegium Pharmaceutical?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($28.72 a share) would return about 22% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Collegium Pharmaceutical cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Collegium Pharmaceutical would cost about $29.82 a share, $968M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.