Filing Flows › Walt Disney (DIS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Walt Disney (DIS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($152.79 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $91.17 a share (−22% against today's $117.53). At $310.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $152.79 | today's $117.53 plus 30% |
| × shares | 1,743.0 million | |
| = Equity value | $266.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $42.0B | |
| − Cash | $5.2B | |
| + Other claims | $6.8B | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $310.0B | 13.0× EBITDA of $23.8B |
| Fees | $6.2B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $130.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $185.4B | 59% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $103.4B | $24.9B | $10.0B | $2.8B | $127.9B |
| Year 2 | $107.7B | $25.9B | $9.8B | $3.4B | $124.5B |
| Year 3 | $111.8B | $26.9B | $9.5B | $4.1B | $120.4B |
| Year 4 | $115.6B | $27.8B | $9.2B | $4.7B | $115.7B |
| Year 5 | $119.1B | $28.6B | $8.9B | $5.3B | $110.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 10.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $299.3B | |
| − Debt left | $110.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $188.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.02× | on $185.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.4% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $117.53; the IRR reaches 20% at $91.17 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $129.28 | 5.6% |
| 20% | $141.04 | 2.8% |
| 30% | $152.79 | 0.4% |
| 40% | $164.54 | −1.8% |
| 50% | $176.30 | −3.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $98.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $23.8B | 24.0% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $5.5B | |
| Capital spending | $8.7B | |
| Debt | $42.0B | |
| Cash | $5.2B | |
| Share price | $117.53 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 4.6% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 28% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Walt Disney would cost about $155.73 a share, $271.4B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $141.04 | $245.8B |
| Median | 32.5% | $155.73 | $271.4B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $178.41 | $311.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.47× the average). Its figures put it in decile 1 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Walt Disney's latest quarter
Walt Disney, Q3 FY26: revenue $25.2B (+7% year over year), operating margin 22.0%, net earnings $2.6B, operating cash flow $4.9B. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Walt Disney being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Walt Disney?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($152.79 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $91.17 a share (−22% against today's $117.53). At $310.0B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Walt Disney cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Walt Disney would cost about $155.73 a share, $271.4B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.