Filing Flows › Companies › Dollar Tree › Analysis traps
Dollar Tree (DLTR): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q2 FY27, to Aug 1, 2026, filed Aug 27, 2026; rules v1.1
Dollar Tree (DLTR): 1 rule of 10 triggered on the filings to Aug 1, 2026: FCF growth = the business improved. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
FCF growth = the business improved Triggered · severity medium · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $164M (+18%), from $893M to $1.1B, but capital expenditure fell by $166M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital rose by $331M.
Innocent reading: An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good.
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 165.01 a share (price 137.94); 83% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 114.56 to 215.47; across every method the research ran the range is 53 to 691. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Triggered severity medium · confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $164M (+18%), from $893M to $1.1B, but capital expenditure fell by $166M: more than the whole increase came from sources that need not repeat. Operating cash flow before working capital rose by $331M.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY25 |
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $2.2B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.2B |
| Capex, year before | $1.3B |
| Capex | $1.1B |
| Free cash flow, year before | $893M |
| Free cash flow | $1.1B |
| Change in FCF | $164M |
| Change in capex | −$166M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$334M |
| Of which: capex cut | $166M |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +101.6% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 330900000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY26 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
What would explain it innocently
- An expansion programme finished, so capex fell back to maintenance levels for good
- Suppliers agreed longer payment terms in a contract
- Inventory was brought down after a glut and will stay down
What to look for in the filing
- Maintenance capex (what it costs to keep the assets working)
- Supplier payment terms and any supply-chain financing
- Management's capex guidance for next year
What would show the trap does not apply
- Next year's FCF holds or rises with capex back at its earlier level and working capital no longer releasing cash
- The 10-K's capex guidance and the segment capex show the cut is a completed programme, not deferral
- The working-capital release matches a disclosed change in terms or a divestiture, not stretched payables or a collection push
Look again: next filing.
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.3% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Stock compensation | $59M |
| Revenue | $19.4B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.3% |
| Buybacks | $1.5B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 26.3 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 215.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 206.3M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -4.5% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY26 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Not triggered confidence low
Adjusted and GAAP EPS were within 10% of each other in the last 3 quarters.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter / adjusted EPS / GAAP EPS / gap | 2025-10-31 / 1.21 / 1.2 / 0.008; 2026-04-30 / 1.74 / 1.76 / -0.011; 2026-07-31 / 2.7 / 2.7 / 0.0 |
| Quarters with adjusted ≥ 10% above GAAP | 0 |
| Quarters compared | 3 |
| Latest gap | +0.0% |
the analysts' 'actual' (usually the company's adjusted EPS) against GAAP net income ÷ diluted shares for the matching quarter; a gap of 10% or more counts (the stand-in until three releases' reconciliation tables are on file)
Source: 2025-10-31 (adjusted 1.21 vs GAAP 1.20) · 2026-04-30 (adjusted 1.74 vs GAAP 1.76) · 2026-07-31 (adjusted 2.70 vs GAAP 2.70)
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
Nothing comes due within a year; net debt is $1.4B.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $1.1B |
| Debt | $2.4B |
| Net debt | $1.4B |
| Due within a year | 0 |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $2.0B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $3.0B |
| Coverage of what is due | — |
| Due in the second year | 0 |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-08-01 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY26 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 197% and net income rose 173% in Q2 FY27; the share count fell 8.1%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q2 FY27 |
| Quarter before | Q2 FY26 |
| EPS, year before | $0.91 |
| EPS | $2.69 |
| Net income, year before | $188M |
| Net income | $514M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 207.8M shares |
| Diluted shares | 190.9M shares |
| EPS growth | +197.1% |
| Net income growth | +173.1% |
| Diluted shares: change | -8.1% |
| eps from profit | $1.57 |
| eps from share count | $0.22 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q2 FY27 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q2 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $1.6B is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $1.3B, best $1.6B): the P/E of 16.3× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $26.3B |
| net income ttm | $1.6B |
| pe ttm | 16.30 |
| net income median fy | $1.3B |
| pe mid cycle | 20.50 |
| net income peak fy | $1.6B |
| years | FY19 / -1591.0; FY20 / 827.0; FY21 / 1342.0; FY22 / 1328.0; FY23 / 1615.0; FY24 / -998.0; FY25 / -3030.0; FY26 / 1282.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q2 FY27 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 165.01 a share (price 137.94); 83% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 114.56 to 215.47; across every method the research ran the range is 53 to 691. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 165.01 |
| price | 137.94 |
| terminal value share | +82.6% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 114.56 / 215.47; WACC / ±1 pt / 136.04 / 207.69; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 132.44 / 204.07; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 152.77 / 177.25 |
| range all methods | 53.47; 690.55 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Dollar Tree: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.