Filing Flows › Krispy Kreme (DNUT) › Takeover & LBO
Is Krispy Kreme (DNUT) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($4.26 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 8.7× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 5.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.17× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $4.26 | today's $3.27 plus 30% |
| × shares | 172.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $735M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $865M | |
| − Cash | $21.8M | |
| + Other claims | $1.7M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $1.6B | 16.2× EBITDA of $97.5M |
| Fees | $31.6M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $536M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $1.1B | 67% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $1.4B | $94.5M | $41.0M | −$4.6M | $541M |
| Year 2 | $1.4B | $93.1M | $41.4M | −$5.5M | $546M |
| Year 3 | $1.4B | $93.1M | $41.8M | −$5.9M | $552M |
| Year 4 | $1.4B | $94.5M | $42.2M | −$7.9M | $560M |
| Year 5 | $1.5B | $97.4M | $42.8M | −$9.6M | $570M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 14.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.4B | |
| − Debt left | $570M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $839M | |
| Money multiple | 0.78× | on $1.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −4.8% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $3.27.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $3.60 | −2.7% |
| 20% | $3.93 | −3.8% |
| 30% | $4.26 | −4.8% |
| 40% | $4.58 | −5.8% |
| 50% | $4.91 | −6.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $1.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $97.5M | 6.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $127M | |
| Capital spending | $59.9M | |
| Debt | $865M | |
| Cash | $21.8M | |
| Share price | $3.27 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Krispy Kreme would cost about $4.34 a share, $749M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $3.93 | $678M |
| Median | 32.5% | $4.34 | $749M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $4.97 | $858M |
The odds, from history
Historically 5.9% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.17× the average). Its figures put it in decile 8 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Krispy Kreme's latest quarter
Krispy Kreme, Q3 2026: revenue $329M (-12% year over year), operating margin -2.7%, net loss $13.3M, operating cash flow $8.7M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Krispy Kreme being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Krispy Kreme?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($4.26 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 8.7× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Krispy Kreme cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Krispy Kreme would cost about $4.34 a share, $749M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.