Filing Flows › Greenbrier Companies (GBX) › Takeover & LBO
Is Greenbrier Companies (GBX) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.27 a share) would return a loss of about 16% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.89× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $57.27 | today's $44.05 plus 30% |
| × shares | 31.8 million | |
| = Equity value | $1.8B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.8B | |
| − Cash | $235M | |
| + Other claims | $118M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $3.5B | 12.9× EBITDA of $274M |
| Fees | $70.8M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.5B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.1B | 58% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.4B | $266M | $115M | −$126M | $1.6B |
| Year 2 | $2.4B | $262M | $125M | −$133M | $1.8B |
| Year 3 | $2.4B | $262M | $135M | −$141M | $1.9B |
| Year 4 | $2.4B | $266M | $146M | −$155M | $2.1B |
| Year 5 | $2.5B | $274M | $158M | −$170M | $2.2B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 11.4× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.1B | |
| − Debt left | $2.2B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $886M | |
| Money multiple | 0.42× | on $2.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −15.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $44.05.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $48.45 | −13.4% |
| 20% | $52.86 | −14.7% |
| 30% | $57.27 | −15.9% |
| 40% | $61.67 | −17.0% |
| 50% | $66.07 | −18.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $274M | 11.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $130M | |
| Capital spending | $279M | |
| Debt | $1.8B | |
| Cash | $235M | |
| Share price | $44.05 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 22% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Greenbrier Companies would cost about $61.67 a share, $2.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 14.7% | $50.53 | $1.6B |
| Median | 40% | $61.67 | $2.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 60.2% | $70.57 | $2.2B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.89× the average). Its figures put it in decile 5 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Greenbrier Companies' latest quarter
Greenbrier Companies, Q4 FY26: revenue $591M (-22% year over year), operating margin 4.3%, net earnings $8.7M, operating cash flow $31.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Greenbrier Companies being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Greenbrier Companies?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($57.27 a share) would return a loss of about 16% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Greenbrier Companies cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 40% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 14.7% to 60.2%), according to the 20 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Greenbrier Companies would cost about $61.67 a share, $2.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.