Filing Flows › Companies › Global Payments › Analysis traps
Global Payments (GPN): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Global Payments (GPN): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 91.20 a share (price 97.65); 47% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 49.25 to 133.15; across every method the research ran the range is -128 to 765. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($2.4B → $2.0B): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $3.1B |
| Operating cash flow | $2.7B |
| Capex, year before | $675M |
| Capex | $618M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $2.4B |
| Free cash flow | $2.0B |
| Change in FCF | −$344M |
| Change in capex | −$57M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$85M |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 2.0% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $154M |
| Revenue | $7.7B |
| SBC / revenue | +2.0% |
| Buybacks | $1.2B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 7.8 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 254.8M shares |
| Diluted shares | 242.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -5.0% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 84% against revenue 64% in Q3 2026; DSO 44 against a median of 40: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +63.7% |
| Receivables, year over year | +83.8% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +68.6% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +82.4% |
| Days sales outstanding | 44.4 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 39.7 |
| Receivables | $1.6B |
| Revenue | $3.3B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$1.9B comes due within a year, 3.0× covered by cash and investments of $5.6B.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $5.6B |
| Debt | $22.6B |
| Net debt | $17.0B |
| Due within a year | $1.9B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | −$169M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $5.6B |
| Coverage of what is due | 3.0 |
| Due in the second year | $1.3B |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 60% and net income fell 56% in Q3 2026; the share count rose 10.4%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $2.65 |
| EPS | $1.06 |
| Net income, year before | $635M |
| Net income | $281M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 240.2M shares |
| Diluted shares | 265.2M shares |
| EPS growth | -60.0% |
| Net income growth | -55.8% |
| Diluted shares: change | +10.4% |
| eps from profit | -$1.48 |
| eps from share count | -$0.11 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $75M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $965M, best $1.6B): the P/E of 343.3× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $25.9B |
| net income ttm | $75M |
| pe ttm | 343.30 |
| net income median fy | $965M |
| pe mid cycle | 26.80 |
| net income peak fy | $1.6B |
| years | FY2018 / 452.0; FY2019 / 431.0; FY2020 / 585.0; FY2021 / 965.0; FY2022 / 111.0; FY2023 / 986.0; FY2024 / 1570.0; FY2025 / 1400.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 91.20 a share (price 97.65); 47% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 49.25 to 133.15; across every method the research ran the range is -128 to 765. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 91.20 |
| price | 97.65 |
| terminal value share | +47.2% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 49.25 / 133.15; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 68.52 / 117.25; WACC / ±1 pt / 73.53 / 116.77; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / 84.12 / 98.27 |
| range all methods | -127.56; 765.09 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Global Payments: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.