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Healthcare Services Group (HCSG): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 23, 2026; rules v1.1
Healthcare Services Group (HCSG): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 4 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $105M is at a high against a median of $59M over eight years; at 16.1× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (28.5×).
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $115M to $139M; working capital and lower capex explain 0% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $31M |
| Operating cash flow | $145M |
| Capex, year before | $6M |
| Capex | $6M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $24M |
| Free cash flow | $139M |
| Change in FCF | $115M |
| Change in capex | −$518K |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$32M |
| Of which: capex cut | $518K |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +0.5% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 145673000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.7% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $12M |
| Revenue | $1.8B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.7% |
| Buybacks | $62M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 5.1 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 74.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 73.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -1.3% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 7% against revenue 3% in Q3 2026; DSO 58 against a median of 58: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +3.3% |
| Receivables, year over year | +7.3% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +2.7% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +0.2% |
| Days sales outstanding | 57.8 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 57.5 |
| Receivables | $310M |
| Revenue | $480M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Insufficient data
no quarter with EPS, net income and diluted shares for both this year and last
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $105M is at a high against a median of $59M over eight years; at 16.1× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (28.5×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $1.7B |
| net income ttm | $105M |
| pe ttm | 16.10 |
| net income median fy | $59M |
| pe mid cycle | 28.50 |
| net income peak fy | $99M |
| years | FY2018 / 84.0; FY2019 / 65.0; FY2020 / 99.0; FY2021 / 46.0; FY2022 / 35.0; FY2023 / 38.0; FY2024 / 39.0; FY2025 / 59.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Healthcare Services Group: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.