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HNI (HNI): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Oct 3, 2026, filed Nov 3, 2026; rules v1.1
HNI (HNI): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Oct 3, 2026. 1 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 59.62 a share (price 47.42); 60% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 1.53 to 117.70; across every method the research ran the range is -89 to 1,005. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Insufficient data
no working-capital items in the cash bridge for both years
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 0.9% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $25M |
| Revenue | $2.8B |
| SBC / revenue | +0.9% |
| Buybacks | $84M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 3.4 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 48.5M shares |
| Diluted shares | 48.9M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.8% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Insufficient data
fewer than five quarters with receivables and revenue on file (a year-over-year comparison needs five)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$16M comes due within a year, 21.9× covered by cash and investments of $114M plus $241M of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $114M |
| Debt | $1.4B |
| Net debt | $1.2B |
| Due within a year | $16M |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $241M |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $355M |
| Coverage of what is due | 21.9 |
| Due in the second year | $22M |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-10-03 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY2025 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 41% and net income rose 118% in Q3 2026; the share count rose 55.2%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.88 |
| EPS | $1.24 |
| Net income, year before | $41M |
| Net income | $90M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 46.7M shares |
| Diluted shares | 72.5M shares |
| EPS growth | +40.7% |
| Net income growth | +118.5% |
| Diluted shares: change | +55.2% |
| eps from profit | $1.04 |
| eps from share count | -$0.69 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $53M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $93M, best $140M): the P/E of 64.6× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $3.4B |
| net income ttm | $53M |
| pe ttm | 64.60 |
| net income median fy | $93M |
| pe mid cycle | 36.80 |
| net income peak fy | $140M |
| years | FY2018 / 93.0; FY2019 / 111.0; FY2020 / 42.0; FY2021 / 60.0; FY2022 / 124.0; FY2023 / 49.0; FY2024 / 140.0; FY2025 / 54.0 |
| down years in window | 3 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 59.62 a share (price 47.42); 60% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 1.53 to 117.70; across every method the research ran the range is -89 to 1,005. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 59.62 |
| price | 47.42 |
| terminal value share | +59.9% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 1.53 / 117.7; WACC / ±1 pt / 49.29 / 74.78; Working capital per $ of growth / ±10 pts / 47.69 / 71.55; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 49.18 / 71.63 |
| range all methods | -89.34; 1005.0 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → HNI: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.