Filing Flows › ICU Medical (ICUI) › Takeover & LBO
Is ICU Medical (ICUI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($212.91 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $76.50 a share (−53% against today's $163.78). Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $212.91 | today's $163.78 plus 30% |
| × shares | 24.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $5.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.3B | |
| − Cash | $308M | |
| = Enterprise value | $6.3B | 25.8× EBITDA of $244M |
| Fees | $126M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.3B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $5.1B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $236M | $102M | $48.4M | $1.3B |
| Year 2 | $2.1B | $233M | $98.8M | $49.8M | $1.2B |
| Year 3 | $2.1B | $233M | $95.0M | $53.6M | $1.2B |
| Year 4 | $2.2B | $236M | $90.9M | $56.8M | $1.1B |
| Year 5 | $2.2B | $243M | $86.5M | $62.3M | $1.1B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 20.8× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $5.0B | |
| − Debt left | $1.1B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.79× | on $5.1B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −4.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $163.78; the IRR reaches 20% at $76.50 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $180.16 | −1.2% |
| 20% | $196.54 | −3.1% |
| 30% | $212.91 | −4.7% |
| 40% | $229.29 | −6.2% |
| 50% | $245.67 | −7.6% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.2B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $244M | 10.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $201M | |
| Capital spending | $88.0M | |
| Debt | $1.3B | |
| Cash | $308M | |
| Share price | $163.78 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -3.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 30% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ICU Medical would cost about $221.10 a share, $5.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $199.81 | $5.0B |
| Median | 35% | $221.10 | $5.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $237.48 | $5.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 4.8% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.96× the average). Its figures put it in decile 6 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
ICU Medical's latest quarter
ICU Medical, Q3 2026: revenue $560M (+4% year over year), operating margin 9.3%, net earnings $26.8M, operating cash flow $99.6M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is ICU Medical being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy ICU Medical?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($212.91 a share) would return a loss of about 5% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $76.50 a share (−53% against today's $163.78).
What would a takeover of ICU Medical cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, ICU Medical would cost about $221.10 a share, $5.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.