Filing Flows › Mativ Holdings (MATV) › Takeover & LBO
Is Mativ Holdings (MATV) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.74 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $8.99 a share (−21% against today's $11.34). Historically 7.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.45× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $14.74 | today's $11.34 plus 30% |
| × shares | 55.2 million | |
| = Equity value | $814M | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.0B | |
| − Cash | $97.3M | |
| = Enterprise value | $1.7B | 8.2× EBITDA of $210M |
| Fees | $34.5M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $1.1B | 5.3× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 65% of the price |
| Buyer's own money | $639M | 36% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.0B | $209M | $85.9M | $85.2M | $1.0B |
| Year 2 | $2.0B | $210M | $79.4M | $91.6M | $946M |
| Year 3 | $2.0B | $213M | $72.4M | $98.8M | $847M |
| Year 4 | $2.0B | $217M | $64.8M | $106M | $741M |
| Year 5 | $2.1B | $224M | $56.7M | $116M | $625M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 7.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $1.6B | |
| − Debt left | $625M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $1.0B | |
| Money multiple | 1.59× | on $639M put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 9.7% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $11.34; the IRR reaches 20% at $8.99 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $12.47 | 13.7% |
| 20% | $13.61 | 11.7% |
| 30% | $14.74 | 9.7% |
| 40% | $15.88 | 7.7% |
| 50% | $17.01 | 5.7% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $210M | 10.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $137M | |
| Capital spending | $38.2M | |
| Debt | $1.0B | |
| Cash | $97.3M | |
| Share price | $11.34 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows -0.4% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mativ Holdings would cost about $15.03 a share, $829M for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $13.61 | $751M |
| Median | 32.5% | $15.03 | $829M |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $17.21 | $950M |
The odds, from history
Historically 7.3% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (1.45× the average). Its figures put it in decile 9 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Mativ Holdings' latest quarter
Mativ Holdings, Q3 2026: revenue $500M (-3% year over year), operating margin 4.0%, net loss $1.2M, operating cash flow $48.5M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Mativ Holdings being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Mativ Holdings?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($14.74 a share) would return about 10% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $8.99 a share (−21% against today's $11.34).
What would a takeover of Mativ Holdings cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mativ Holdings would cost about $15.03 a share, $829M for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.