Filing Flows › Mosaic (MOS) › Takeover & LBO
Is Mosaic (MOS) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($29.28 a share) would return a loss of about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 8.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own. Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $29.28 | today's $22.52 plus 30% |
| × shares | 317.9 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $5.1B | |
| − Cash | $273M | |
| + Other claims | $178M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $14.3B | 25.4× EBITDA of $563M |
| Fees | $285M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $3.1B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $11.5B | 79% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $11.9B | $563M | $237M | −$983M | $4.1B |
| Year 2 | $12.0B | $567M | $312M | −$1.1B | $5.1B |
| Year 3 | $12.2B | $576M | $394M | −$1.2B | $6.3B |
| Year 4 | $12.4B | $588M | $484M | −$1.3B | $7.6B |
| Year 5 | $12.8B | $606M | $583M | −$1.4B | $9.0B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 21.5× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $13.1B | |
| − Debt left | $9.0B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $4.0B | |
| Money multiple | 0.35× | on $11.5B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | −18.9% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $22.52.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $24.78 | −16.7% |
| 20% | $27.03 | −17.8% |
| 30% | $29.28 | −18.9% |
| 40% | $31.53 | −19.9% |
| 50% | $33.79 | −20.8% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $11.9B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $563M | 4.7% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $1.2B | |
| Capital spending | $1.3B | |
| Debt | $5.1B | |
| Cash | $273M | |
| Share price | $22.52 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 0.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mosaic would cost about $29.85 a share, $9.5B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $27.03 | $8.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $29.85 | $9.5B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $34.19 | $10.9B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.0% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.6× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Mosaic's latest quarter
Mosaic, Q3 2026: revenue $3.1B (-10% year over year), operating margin -3.1%, net loss $65.3M, operating cash flow $284M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Mosaic being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Mosaic?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($29.28 a share) would return a loss of about 19% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. It already carries 8.5× EBITDA in net debt (the model flags anything over 6×), so a buyer could add little debt of its own.
What would a takeover of Mosaic cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Mosaic would cost about $29.85 a share, $9.5B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.