Filing Flows › MSA Safety (MSA) › Takeover & LBO
Is MSA Safety (MSA) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($232.14 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $134.07 a share (−25% against today's $178.57). Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.7× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $232.14 | today's $178.57 plus 30% |
| × shares | 38.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $9.0B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $1.1B | |
| − Cash | $187M | |
| = Enterprise value | $9.9B | 20.4× EBITDA of $486M |
| Fees | $198M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.7B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $7.4B | 74% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $2.2B | $525M | $205M | $190M | $2.5B |
| Year 2 | $2.3B | $561M | $190M | $226M | $2.3B |
| Year 3 | $2.5B | $592M | $173M | $263M | $2.0B |
| Year 4 | $2.6B | $617M | $153M | $297M | $1.7B |
| Year 5 | $2.6B | $635M | $130M | $330M | $1.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.1× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $10.2B | |
| − Debt left | $1.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $8.9B | |
| Money multiple | 1.19× | on $7.4B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 3.6% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $178.57; the IRR reaches 20% at $134.07 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $196.43 | 8.0% |
| 20% | $214.28 | 5.7% |
| 30% | $232.14 | 3.6% |
| 40% | $250.00 | 1.7% |
| 50% | $267.86 | 0.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $2.0B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $486M | 24.1% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $79.3M | |
| Capital spending | $53.7M | |
| Debt | $1.1B | |
| Cash | $187M | |
| Share price | $178.57 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 24% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MSA Safety would cost about $241.07 a share, $9.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 22% | $217.86 | $8.4B |
| Median | 35% | $241.07 | $9.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 45% | $258.93 | $10.0B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.7× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
MSA Safety's latest quarter
MSA Safety, Q3 2026: revenue $536M (+14% year over year), operating margin 16.4%, net earnings $58.4M, operating cash flow $82.3M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is MSA Safety being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy MSA Safety?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($232.14 a share) would return about 4% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $134.07 a share (−25% against today's $178.57).
What would a takeover of MSA Safety cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 35% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 22% to 45%), according to the 15 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, MSA Safety would cost about $241.07 a share, $9.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.