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Microsoft (MSFT): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q1 FY27, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 28, 2026; rules v1.1
Microsoft (MSFT): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 1 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 292.91 a share (price 530.61); 85% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 237.35 to 359.02; across every method the research ran the range is 46 to 1,307. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence high
Free cash flow did not rise ($71.6B → $67.0B): the trap does not arise.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY25 |
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $136.2B |
| Operating cash flow | $182.9B |
| Capex, year before | $64.6B |
| Capex | $115.9B |
| Free cash flow, year before | $71.6B |
| Free cash flow | $67.0B |
| Change in FCF | −$4.6B |
| Change in capex | $51.4B |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $5.2B |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY26 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 3.7% of revenue, but buybacks of $22.3B covered it (1.8×) and the diluted share count fell 0.2%: the dilution has been paid for in cash.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Stock compensation | $12.4B |
| Revenue | $331.8B |
| SBC / revenue | +3.7% |
| Buybacks | $22.3B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 1.8 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 7,465.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 7,453.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.2% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY26 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 17% against revenue 19% in Q1 FY27; DSO 71 against a median of 64: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q1 FY27 |
| Revenue, year over year | +18.8% |
| Receivables, year over year | +17.4% |
| Quarter before | Q4 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +17.8% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +15.7% |
| Days sales outstanding | 71.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 64.2 |
| Receivables | $62.1B |
| Revenue | $92.3B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q1 FY27 (receivables and revenue) · Q1 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Not triggered confidence medium
$9.2B comes due within a year, 13.5× covered by cash and investments of $64.5B plus $60.0B of free cash flow.
The figures and how they are read
| Cash and investments | $64.5B |
| Debt | $35.5B |
| Net debt | −$29.0B |
| Due within a year | $9.2B |
| Read from | the debt maturity table |
| Free cash flow, twelve months | $60.0B |
| Cash plus free cash flow | $124.5B |
| Coverage of what is due | 13.5 |
| Due in the second year | 0 |
| Balance sheet date | 2026-09-30 |
due within a year from the maturity table (else the current portion of debt), against cash and investments plus free cash flow over the last twelve months (zero if negative); no credit lines assumed
Source: FY26 (debt maturities, cash and investments)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 32% and net income rose 32% in Q1 FY27; the share count fell 0.3%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q1 FY27 |
| Quarter before | Q1 FY26 |
| EPS, year before | $3.72 |
| EPS | $4.92 |
| Net income, year before | $27.7B |
| Net income | $36.6B |
| Diluted shares, year before | 7,466.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 7,446.0M shares |
| EPS growth | +32.4% |
| Net income growth | +32.0% |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.3% |
| eps from profit | $1.19 |
| eps from share count | $0.01 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q1 FY27 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q1 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $142.6B is a high, but the last eight years rose almost every year (median $72.7B): a steady climb, not a cycle's top, so the P/E of 27.7× is not on peak profit in that sense.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $3.95T |
| net income ttm | $142.6B |
| pe ttm | 27.70 |
| net income median fy | $72.7B |
| pe mid cycle | 54.30 |
| net income peak fy | $133.7B |
| years | FY19 / 39240.0; FY20 / 44281.0; FY21 / 61271.0; FY22 / 72738.0; FY23 / 72361.0; FY24 / 88136.0; FY25 / 101832.0; FY26 / 133749.0 |
| down years in window | 1 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q1 FY27 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 292.91 a share (price 530.61); 85% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 237.35 to 359.02; across every method the research ran the range is 46 to 1,307. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 292.91 |
| price | 530.61 |
| terminal value share | +85.1% |
| swing by input | Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 237.35 / 359.02; WACC / ±1 pt / 252.39 / 346.63; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 271.01 / 314.81; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 271.5 / 314.32 |
| range all methods | 45.56; 1306.93 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Microsoft: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.