Filing Flows › Motorola Solutions (MSI) › Takeover & LBO
Is Motorola Solutions (MSI) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($670.62 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $333.48 a share (−35% against today's $515.86). At $121.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect. Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $670.62 | today's $515.86 plus 30% |
| × shares | 167.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $112.3B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $10.1B | |
| − Cash | $774M | |
| + Other claims | $17.0M | preferred stock, minority interests |
| = Enterprise value | $121.6B | 33.4× EBITDA of $3.6B |
| Fees | $2.4B | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $20.0B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $104.0B | 84% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $13.6B | $3.9B | $1.5B | $1.6B | $18.5B |
| Year 2 | $14.5B | $4.2B | $1.4B | $1.9B | $16.6B |
| Year 3 | $15.3B | $4.4B | $1.3B | $2.1B | $14.5B |
| Year 4 | $16.0B | $4.6B | $1.1B | $2.4B | $12.0B |
| Year 5 | $16.5B | $4.8B | $922M | $2.7B | $9.4B |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 26.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $125.0B | |
| − Debt left | $9.4B | |
| = Buyer's equity | $115.6B | |
| Money multiple | 1.11× | on $104.0B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 2.1% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $515.86; the IRR reaches 20% at $333.48 a share.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $567.45 | 6.0% |
| 20% | $619.03 | 4.0% |
| 30% | $670.62 | 2.1% |
| 40% | $722.20 | 0.5% |
| 50% | $773.79 | −1.0% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $12.6B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $3.6B | 28.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $584M | |
| Capital spending | $304M | |
| Debt | $10.1B | |
| Cash | $774M | |
| Share price | $515.86 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 23% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Motorola Solutions would cost about $670.62 a share, $112.3B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 12% | $577.76 | $96.7B |
| Median | 30% | $670.62 | $112.3B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 31% | $675.78 | $113.1B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.4% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.67× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Motorola Solutions' latest quarter
Motorola Solutions, Q3 2026: revenue $3.4B (+12% year over year), operating margin 23.0%, net earnings $514M, operating cash flow $662M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Motorola Solutions being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Motorola Solutions?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($670.62 a share) would return about 2% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; the most a buyer could pay for a 20% return is $333.48 a share (−35% against today's $515.86). At $121.6B it would be larger than any buyout on record (the model flags anything over $60 billion), so this is a thought experiment more than a prospect.
What would a takeover of Motorola Solutions cost?
Takeovers in its sector paid a median premium of 30% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 12% to 31%), according to the 14 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Motorola Solutions would cost about $670.62 a share, $112.3B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.