Filing Flows › Companies › Natures Sunshine Products › Analysis traps
Natures Sunshine Products (NATR): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 4, 2026; rules v1.1
Natures Sunshine Products (NATR): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 4 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Receivables growing = future cash is certain To review · confidence medium
Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (21% against -9%) and DSO is 13 against a median of 9; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $15M to $29M; working capital and lower capex explain 38% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $25M |
| Operating cash flow | $35M |
| Capex, year before | $11M |
| Capex | $6M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $14M |
| Free cash flow | $29M |
| Change in FCF | $15M |
| Change in capex | −$4M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | $964K |
| Of which: capex cut | $4M |
| Of which: working capital released | $964K |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +37.6% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 9059000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.2% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $6M |
| Revenue | $480M |
| SBC / revenue | +1.2% |
| Buybacks | $16M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 2.8 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 19.1M shares |
| Diluted shares | 18.5M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -3.2% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain To review confidence medium
Receivables outgrew revenue in Q3 2026 (21% against -9%) and DSO is 13 against a median of 9; one quarter can be timing, so this is one to watch rather than a pattern.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | -9.1% |
| Receivables, year over year | +21.2% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +1.9% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +6.4% |
| Days sales outstanding | 12.7 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 8.8 |
| Receivables | $18M |
| Revenue | $117M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Receivables fall back in line with revenue in the next quarter and DSO returns to its history
- The 10-Q attributes the increase to a disclosed one-off (a large customer's timing, an acquisition) and the allowance for doubtful accounts did not rise
Look again: next filing.
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS fell 64% and net income fell 65% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 0.9%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.30 |
| EPS | $0.11 |
| Net income, year before | $5M |
| Net income | $2M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 18.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 17.9M shares |
| EPS growth | -64.2% |
| Net income growth | -64.6% |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.9% |
| eps from profit | -$0.19 |
| eps from share count | $0.00 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
no market value or trailing net income in the valuation research
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value Insufficient data
no DCF in the valuation research for this company
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Natures Sunshine Products: cash flow →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.