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Paycom Software (PAYC): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Nov 5, 2026; rules v1.1
Paycom Software (PAYC): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 2 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review · confidence medium
Net income of $510M is at a high against a median of $281M over eight years; at 20.7× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (37.6×).
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 193.08 a share (price 237.32); 71% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 155.21 to 238.17; across every method the research ran the range is 85 to 816. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $67M to $408M; working capital and lower capex explain 0% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $534M |
| Operating cash flow | $679M |
| Capex, year before | $193M |
| Capex | $271M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $341M |
| Free cash flow | $408M |
| Change in FCF | $67M |
| Change in capex | $78M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$106M |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +0.0% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 251500000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 5.8% of revenue, but buybacks of $326M covered it (2.7×) and the diluted share count fell 0.3%: the dilution has been paid for in cash.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $119M |
| Revenue | $2.1B |
| SBC / revenue | +5.8% |
| Buybacks | $326M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 2.7 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 56.3M shares |
| Diluted shares | 56.1M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | -0.3% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 12% against revenue 10% in Q3 2026; DSO 9 against a median of 8: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +10.2% |
| Receivables, year over year | +11.5% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +9.8% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +34.1% |
| Days sales outstanding | 9.3 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 7.6 |
| Receivables | $56M |
| Revenue | $544M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
neither a maturity table nor the current portion of debt is on file
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 52% and net income rose 20% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 21.1%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $1.96 |
| EPS | $2.99 |
| Net income, year before | $111M |
| Net income | $133M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 56.4M shares |
| Diluted shares | 44.5M shares |
| EPS growth | +52.5% |
| Net income growth | +20.3% |
| Diluted shares: change | -21.1% |
| eps from profit | $0.40 |
| eps from share count | $0.63 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued To review confidence medium
Net income of $510M is at a high against a median of $281M over eight years; at 20.7× the market is not pricing it as cheap, but a multiple on this year's profit still understates the mid-cycle one (37.6×).
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $10.6B |
| net income ttm | $510M |
| pe ttm | 20.70 |
| net income median fy | $281M |
| pe mid cycle | 37.60 |
| net income peak fy | $502M |
| years | FY2018 / 137.0; FY2019 / 181.0; FY2020 / 143.0; FY2021 / 196.0; FY2022 / 281.0; FY2023 / 341.0; FY2024 / 502.0; FY2025 / 453.0 |
| down years in window | 2 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
What would show the trap does not apply
- Profit holds at this level through the next two years (the eight-year peak was a new base, not a top)
- The industry's capacity and prices stay where they are rather than reverting
Look again: next filing.
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 193.08 a share (price 237.32); 71% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 155.21 to 238.17; across every method the research ran the range is 85 to 816. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 193.08 |
| price | 237.32 |
| terminal value share | +70.8% |
| swing by input | Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 155.21 / 238.17; WACC / ±1 pt / 166.96 / 228.28; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 174.96 / 211.19; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 178.92 / 207.24 |
| range all methods | 85.46; 815.52 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Paycom Software: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.