Filing Flows › Pattern Group (PTRN) › Takeover & LBO
Is Pattern Group (PTRN) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($21.57 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average).
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $21.57 | today's $16.59 plus 30% |
| × shares | 182.4 million | |
| = Equity value | $3.9B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $352M | |
| = Enterprise value | $3.6B | 22.3× EBITDA of $160M |
| Fees | $71.7M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $882M | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $2.8B | 76% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $3.5B | $173M | $67.5M | $23.2M | $859M |
| Year 2 | $3.8B | $185M | $65.7M | $33.9M | $825M |
| Year 3 | $4.0B | $195M | $63.1M | $45.0M | $780M |
| Year 4 | $4.1B | $203M | $59.7M | $56.5M | $724M |
| Year 5 | $4.3B | $209M | $55.4M | $68.0M | $656M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 16.7× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $3.5B | |
| − Debt left | $656M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $2.8B | |
| Money multiple | 1.02× | on $2.8B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.5% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $16.59.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $18.25 | 5.7% |
| 20% | $19.91 | 2.9% |
| 30% | $21.57 | 0.5% |
| 40% | $23.23 | −1.6% |
| 50% | $24.88 | −3.5% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $3.3B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $160M | 4.9% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $21.7M | |
| Capital spending | $36.3M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $352M | |
| Share price | $16.59 | on Oct 30, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 21% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Pattern Group would cost about $21.98 a share, $4.0B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $19.91 | $3.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $21.98 | $4.0B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $25.18 | $4.6B |
The odds, from history
Historically 3.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.69× the average). Its figures put it in decile 3 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Pattern Group's latest quarter
Pattern Group, Q3 2026: revenue $886M (+38% year over year), operating margin 4.2%, net earnings $32.1M, operating cash flow $46.4M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Pattern Group being acquired?
No headline, 8-K or 13D about a sale is on file in the last year.
Could private equity buy Pattern Group?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($21.57 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Pattern Group cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Pattern Group would cost about $21.98 a share, $4.0B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.