Filing Flows › Roku (ROKU) › Takeover & LBO
Is Roku (ROKU) a takeover target?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($210.11 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%. Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Latest signal (2026-11-06): The information set forth in the Introductory Note and Items 2.01, 3.01, 3.03 and 5.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated herein by reference. As a result of the First Merger, at the Effective Time on November 6, 2026, a cha.
The buyout, step by step
| Entry | Amount | How |
|---|---|---|
| Offer price a share | $210.11 | today's $161.62 plus 30% |
| × shares | 152.6 million | |
| = Equity value | $32.1B | |
| + Debt refinanced | $0 | |
| − Cash | $2.7B | |
| = Enterprise value | $29.3B | 61.9× EBITDA of $474M |
| Fees | $587M | 2% of the price |
| New debt | $2.6B | 5.5× EBITDA at 7.65% a year; the limit that binds: 5.5× EBITDA |
| Buyer's own money | $27.3B | 91% of the cost |
5 years under the buyer
| Year | Revenue | EBITDA | Interest | Free cash flow | Debt left |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Year 1 | $5.9B | $512M | $199M | $227M | $2.4B |
| Year 2 | $6.3B | $546M | $182M | $276M | $2.1B |
| Year 3 | $6.7B | $577M | $161M | $326M | $1.8B |
| Year 4 | $7.0B | $601M | $136M | $376M | $1.4B |
| Year 5 | $7.2B | $619M | $107M | $424M | $978M |
The exit and the buyer's return
| Exit | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Exit multiple | 46.3× EBITDA | today's trading multiple, before any premium |
| Enterprise value at exit | $28.7B | |
| − Debt left | $978M | |
| = Buyer's equity | $27.7B | |
| Money multiple | 1.01× | on $27.3B put in |
| Buyer's yearly return (IRR) | 0.3% |
Price against return
What the buyer makes at other premiums over today's $161.62.
| Premium | Price a share | Buyer's IRR |
|---|---|---|
| 10% | $177.78 | 4.4% |
| 20% | $193.94 | 2.2% |
| 30% | $210.11 | 0.3% |
| 40% | $226.27 | −1.5% |
| 50% | $242.43 | −3.1% |
The figures used
| Figure | Amount | |
|---|---|---|
| Revenue, last 12 months | $5.5B | |
| EBITDA, last 12 months | $474M | 8.6% of revenue |
| Depreciation and amortization | $46.0M | |
| Capital spending | $9.4M | |
| Debt | $0 | |
| Cash | $2.7B | |
| Share price | $161.62 | on Nov 6, 2026 |
Fixed rules, the same as the interactive view's starting point: the shares are bought at today's price plus 30%, the company's debt is refinanced and fees take 2%. New debt is the least of 5.5× EBITDA, 65% of the price and the amount whose interest EBITDA covers 2 times, at 7.65% a year (SOFR 3.89% plus the high-yield B spread 3.26% plus 0.5%, rates of Oct 15, 2026). Revenue grows 8.0% in the first year — the company's own rate, held between −3% and +8% — fading to 3% by year 5; the EBITDA margin, depreciation and capital spending stay at today's share of revenue; working capital takes 10% of each year's added revenue; tax is 12% of profit after interest. Every dollar of free cash flow repays debt. After 5 years the buyer sells at today's multiple of EBITDA.
What a takeover could cost
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Roku would cost about $214.15 a share, $32.7B for all its shares.
| Premium | % | Price a share | All shares |
|---|---|---|---|
| Low end (a quarter of deals paid less) | 20% | $193.94 | $29.6B |
| Median | 32.5% | $214.15 | $32.7B |
| High end (a quarter paid more) | 51.8% | $245.34 | $37.4B |
The odds, from history
Historically 2.5% of companies with its figures were bought within a year (0.51× the average). Its figures put it in decile 2 of 10 (10 = the most likely to be bought). The odds come from a model of every merger proxy, tender-offer response and going-private statement filed on EDGAR since 2011, set against each company's size, margins, debt, cash flow and growth the year before.
Rumors and deal signals
- 2026-11-06 · 8-K deal · The information set forth in the Introductory Note and Items 2.01, 3.01, 3.03 and 5.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated herein by reference. As a result of the First Merger, at the Effective Time on November 6, 2026, a cha
- 2026-11-03 · news · Roku (ROKU) Posts Strong Q3 Results Amid Acquisition Talks and V
- 2026-09-01 · deal · Agreed sale to FOX · pending
- 2026-09-01 · DEFM14A · Merger proxy (DEFM14A)
Roku's latest quarter
Roku, Q3 2026: revenue $1.5B (+24% year over year), operating margin 10.9%, net earnings $183M, operating cash flow $219M. The chart follows the revenue to costs, profit and cash.
Questions
Is Roku being acquired?
The latest signal on file is from 2026-11-06: The information set forth in the Introductory Note and Items 2.01, 3.01, 3.03 and 5.02 of this Current Report on Form 8-K is incorporated herein by reference. As a result of the First Merger, at the Effective Time on November 6, 2026, a cha. A headline is not a deal; Filing Flows lists the news, 8-K filings and 13D filings about a sale.
Could private equity buy Roku?
A leveraged buyout at today's price plus 30% ($210.11 a share) would return about 0% a year to a private-equity buyer over 5 years; no price, however low, gets a buyer to 20%.
What would a takeover of Roku cost?
Takeovers on record paid a median premium of 32.5% over the share price before the deal (the middle half 20% to 51.8%), according to the 1,437 merger proxies and tender-offer responses on EDGAR that state a premium. At the median, Roku would cost about $214.15 a share, $32.7B for all its shares.
Updated Nov 8, 2026. Read automatically from SEC filings and public data; errors are possible. Not investment advice.