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Sandisk (SNDK): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q1 FY27, to Oct 2, 2026, filed Oct 30, 2026; rules v1.1
Sandisk (SNDK): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Oct 2, 2026. 1 to review; 3 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 2,025.84 a share (price 806.43); 59% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 1,717.90 to 2,381.92; across every method the research ran the range is 204 to 16,870. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $11.6B to $11.5B; working capital and lower capex explain 0% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY25 |
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $84M |
| Operating cash flow | $11.7B |
| Capex, year before | $204M |
| Capex | $177M |
| Free cash flow, year before | −$120M |
| Free cash flow | $11.5B |
| Change in FCF | $11.6B |
| Change in capex | −$27M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$840M |
| Of which: capex cut | $27M |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +0.2% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 12427000000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY26 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY25 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 1.1% of revenue: small enough that adding it back changes little.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY26 |
| Stock compensation | $232M |
| Revenue | $20.2B |
| SBC / revenue | +1.1% |
| Buybacks | $4.5B |
| Buybacks / SBC | 19.5 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 145.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 155.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +6.9% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY26 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew 452% against revenue 378% in Q1 FY27; DSO 47 against a median of 48: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q1 FY27 |
| Revenue, year over year | +377.9% |
| Receivables, year over year | +452.0% |
| Quarter before | Q4 FY26 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +371.6% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | +340.8% |
| Days sales outstanding | 46.6 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 48.0 |
| Receivables | $6.6B |
| Revenue | $11.0B |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q1 FY27 (receivables and revenue) · Q1 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 6895% and net income rose 7133% in Q1 FY27; the share count rose 3.4%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q1 FY27 |
| Quarter before | Q1 FY26 |
| EPS, year before | $0.75 |
| EPS | $52.60 |
| Net income, year before | $112M |
| Net income | $8.1B |
| Diluted shares, year before | 149.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 154.0M shares |
| EPS growth | 68.95 |
| Net income growth | 71.33 |
| Diluted shares: change | +3.4% |
| eps from profit | $53.62 |
| eps from share count | -$1.77 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q1 FY27 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q1 FY26 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Insufficient data
4 fiscal years of net income on file; a cycle needs five
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 2,025.84 a share (price 806.43); 59% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving revenue growth (each year) by ±5 pts alone takes it from 1,717.90 to 2,381.92; across every method the research ran the range is 204 to 16,870. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 2,025.84 |
| price | 806.43 |
| terminal value share | +59.4% |
| swing by input | Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 1717.9 / 2381.92; WACC / ±1 pt / 1876.74 / 2199.13; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 1910.42 / 2141.26; Operating margin / ±3 pts / 1942.27 / 2109.4 |
| range all methods | 204.39; 16870.1 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → Sandisk: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.