Filing Flows › Companies › SPS Commerce › Analysis traps
SPS Commerce (SPSC): analysis traps
Where its figures could mislead a reader, and what to check before taking them at face value · Data: Q3 2026, to Sep 30, 2026, filed Oct 29, 2026; rules v1.1
SPS Commerce (SPSC): 0 rules of 10 triggered on the filings to Sep 30, 2026. 1 to review; 2 with insufficient data; 2 not applicable. Each is a question to verify, with the normal explanation that would produce the same figures.
Check these first
A precise DCF value = the true value To review · confidence high
The DCF's point value is 32.00 a share (price 91.94); 69% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 25.84 to 38.15; across every method the research ran the range is -30 to 314. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
Innocent reading: A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary.
Every rule
A01 FCF growth = the business improved Not triggered confidence medium
Free cash flow rose $15M to $152M; working capital and lower capex explain 0% of it, so most of the gain is in operating cash flow itself.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year before | FY2024 |
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Operating cash flow, year before | $157M |
| Operating cash flow | $179M |
| Capex, year before | $20M |
| Capex | $27M |
| Free cash flow, year before | $137M |
| Free cash flow | $152M |
| Change in FCF | $15M |
| Change in capex | $6M |
| Working capital: change in its cash contribution | −$42M |
| Of which: capex cut | 0.00 |
| Of which: working capital released | 0.00 |
| Share of the increase that need not repeat | +0.0% |
| Operating cash flow before working capital: change | 63843000.00 |
FCF = operating cash flow − cash capex; ΔFCF = ΔOCF − ΔCapEx; the working-capital part is the change in the cash-bridge items (receivables, inventory, payables, accruals), with the sign of the cash flow statement
Source: FY2025 (cash flow statement, fiscal year) · FY2024 (cash flow statement, fiscal year before)
A07 Stock compensation added back = no economic cost Not triggered confidence high
Stock compensation is 7.1% of revenue, but buybacks of $114M covered it (2.1×) and the diluted share count was about flat: the dilution has been paid for in cash.
The figures and how they are read
| Fiscal year | FY2025 |
| Stock compensation | $54M |
| Revenue | $752M |
| SBC / revenue | +7.1% |
| Buybacks | $114M |
| Buybacks / SBC | 2.1 |
| Diluted shares, year before | 37.9M shares |
| Diluted shares | 38.0M shares |
| Diluted shares: change | +0.4% |
SBC / revenue from the cash flow statement's add-back; the diluted weighted share count year over year; buybacks from the financing section
Source: FY2025 (stock compensation, buybacks and the diluted share count, fiscal year)
B02 Receivables growing = future cash is certain Not triggered confidence medium
Receivables grew -2% against revenue 4% in Q3 2026; DSO 30 against a median of 31: collections are keeping pace with sales.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Revenue, year over year | +4.1% |
| Receivables, year over year | -1.9% |
| Quarter before | Q2 2026 |
| Revenue y/y, quarter before | +5.6% |
| Receivables y/y, quarter before | -5.7% |
| Days sales outstanding | 30.2 |
| DSO, median of eight quarters | 31.2 |
| Receivables | $66M |
| Revenue | $198M |
receivables and revenue against the same quarter a year earlier; DSO = receivables / quarterly revenue × days, against the median of the eight quarters before
Source: Q3 2026 (receivables and revenue) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
B08 Adjusted profit = economic profit Insufficient data
no reconciliation table read from the releases yet and fewer than three quarters with both an adjusted and a GAAP EPS
C02 Low net debt = no refinancing risk Insufficient data
no debt figure could be read from the balance sheet (the filing may tag it in other lines)
D03 EPS growth = profit growth Not triggered confidence high
EPS rose 26% and net income rose 20% in Q3 2026; the share count fell 4.7%: EPS growth follows profit growth.
The figures and how they are read
| Quarter | Q3 2026 |
| Quarter before | Q3 2025 |
| EPS, year before | $0.67 |
| EPS | $0.85 |
| Net income, year before | $26M |
| Net income | $31M |
| Diluted shares, year before | 38.0M shares |
| Diluted shares | 36.2M shares |
| EPS growth | +25.9% |
| Net income growth | +20.0% |
| Diluted shares: change | -4.7% |
| eps from profit | $0.13 |
| eps from share count | $0.04 |
EPS and net income against the same quarter a year earlier; the EPS bridge attributes the change to profit first, then to the share count (the order is fixed and disclosed)
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, diluted shares, EPS) · Q3 2025 (the same quarter a year earlier)
E02 Low P/E at a cyclical peak = undervalued Not triggered confidence medium
Net income of $83M is not at a cyclical high against the last eight years (median $55M, best $93M): the P/E of 40.1× is on a normal year.
The figures and how they are read
| market value | $3.3B |
| net income ttm | $83M |
| pe ttm | 40.10 |
| net income median fy | $55M |
| pe mid cycle | 60.40 |
| net income peak fy | $93M |
| years | FY2018 / 24.0; FY2019 / 34.0; FY2020 / 46.0; FY2021 / 45.0; FY2022 / 55.0; FY2023 / 66.0; FY2024 / 77.0; FY2025 / 93.0 |
| down years in window | 1 |
P/E on the trailing twelve months' net income against the P/E on the median net income of the last eight fiscal years (a mid-cycle stand-in); 'at a peak' = this year's profit at or above 90% of the best year and at least 1.3× the median
Source: Q3 2026 (net income, trailing twelve months)
E07 A precise DCF value = the true value To review confidence high
The DCF's point value is 32.00 a share (price 91.94); 69% of it is the terminal value, a number about years no one has seen. Moving operating margin by ±3 pts alone takes it from 25.84 to 38.15; across every method the research ran the range is -30 to 314. The value is a range; the decimals are not information.
The figures and how they are read
| dcf value | 32.00 |
| price | 91.94 |
| terminal value share | +69.1% |
| swing by input | Operating margin / ±3 pts / 25.84 / 38.15; Revenue growth (each year) / ±5 pts / 27.23 / 37.68; WACC / ±1 pt / 28.7 / 36.38; Tax rate / ±5 pts / 30.0 / 33.99 |
| range all methods | -30.43; 314.22 |
the DCF's point value against the share of it that is the terminal value and the value at each input moved by one step (growth ±5 pts, WACC ±1 pt, margin ±3 pts …); the range across every method the research ran
Source: 2026-11-08 (valuation research)
What would explain it innocently
- A stable, mature business with a narrow range of outcomes, where the point value is a fair summary
- The inputs that matter most are themselves well known (a regulated return, a long contract)
What to look for in the filing
- Which input you believe differs from the research's and why
- What the price implies for growth (the reverse DCF on the fair-value page)
What would show the trap does not apply
- The DCF's value is robust to the terminal growth and discount rate (the range's low end is still above the price)
- The company's cash flows over the next three years track the DCF's early years
Look again: next filing.
J06 A bank's low P/E and high profit = safe Not applicable
not a bank
J08 A REIT's low net income = the dividend is unsafe Not applicable
not a REIT
What the statuses mean
Triggered: the filings show the pattern; read the normal explanations and the missing evidence before concluding anything. To review: one quarter or a weak signal; a reader's judgement, not a pattern. Not triggered: the pattern is absent on these figures. Insufficient data: the filings read so far do not hold what the rule needs; this is not a clean bill. Not applicable: the rule is not meant for this kind of company (a bank's working capital, a loss-making quarter's EPS growth). Out of date: the latest filing is more than fifteen months old.
Severity is what the pattern could mean for cash, value or solvency; confidence is how reliable the inputs and the reading are. The two are kept apart.
Record a view
A reader's judgement, grounds, what would change it and the next review; kept in the browser (needs JavaScript).
Every rule and the companies it triggers on → SPS Commerce: cash flow → Earnings quality score →
Each rule reads the company's own filings by a fixed formula and says what would explain the same figures innocently. A triggered rule is a question to verify, not a finding of manipulation, and not a view on the stock. Missing data is shown as missing, never as clear. Not investment advice.